Call
the Map
FORECAST54 DAYS OUT
← Pollster performanceFilter the Full Poll Archive →
Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
230
Mean absolute error
4.19percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.37
Represented cycles
112013–2025
Current archive
141canonical records
History span
Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 141 total

Paxton +1

James Talarico 46% · Ken Paxton 47%

Field dates
Aug 9–Aug 10, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Sand +5

Rob Sand 48% · Zach Lahn 43%

Field dates
Aug 2–Aug 4, 2026
Sample
712 LV
Sponsor / client
Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hinson +3

Ashley Hinson 48% · Josh Turek 45%

Field dates
Aug 2–Aug 4, 2026
Sample
712 LV
Sponsor / client
Nexstar Media
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +10.8

Dem 50.28% · Rep 39.48%

Field dates
Jun 7–Jun 8, 2026
Sample
1,200 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8.2

Dem 49.2% · Rep 41%

Field dates
Mar 16–Mar 17, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
House

HOU-WA-03

Braun +1

Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 44% · John Braun 45%

Field dates
Jul 8–Jul 10, 2026
Sample
500 LV
Sponsor / client
Northwest Progressive Institute
Partisan sponsorship
Democratic-sponsored
Disapprove +15.9

Approve 39.3% · Disapprove 55.2%

Field dates
May 24–May 25, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8.5

Dem 49.8% · Rep 41.3%

Field dates
May 24–May 25, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +16.3

Approve 39.6% · Disapprove 55.9%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 26, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

30 shown · 230 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20162016_Pres-G_WIPres-G2016-10-28400D+6.0R+0.8D+6.8
20162016_Sen-G_OHSen-G2016-10-27800R+14.0R+20.9D+6.9
20162016_Sen-G_NVSen-G2016-10-27550R+4.0D+2.5R+6.5
20162016_Sen-G_NCSen-G2016-10-27650R+4.0R+5.7D+1.7
20162016_Sen-G_FLSen-G2016-10-27500R+2.0R+7.7D+5.7
20162016_Pres-G_OHPres-G2016-10-278000R+8.1D+8.1
20162016_Pres-G_NVPres-G2016-10-27550D+2.0D+2.5R+0.5
20162016_Pres-G_NCPres-G2016-10-27650D+3.0R+3.7D+6.7
20162016_Pres-G_FLPres-G2016-10-27500D+1.0R+1.2D+2.2
20162016_Sen-G_PASen-G2016-10-26550D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
20162016_Pres-G_PAPres-G2016-10-26550D+5.0R+0.7D+5.7
20162016_Pres-G_MIPres-G2016-10-26500D+7.0R+0.2D+7.2
20162016_Sen-G_NHSen-G2016-10-24600R+6.0D+0.1R+6.1
20162016_Pres-G_NHPres-G2016-10-24600D+3.0D+0.4D+2.6
20162016_Sen-G_IDSen-G2016-10-221,023R+33.0R+38.4D+5.4
20162016_Pres-G_IDPres-G2016-10-221,023R+29.0R+31.8D+2.8
20162016_Sen-G_PASen-G2016-10-18800R+3.2R+1.4R+1.8
20162016_Sen-G_NHSen-G2016-10-18900R+0.1D+0.1R+0.2
20162016_Sen-G_MOSen-G2016-10-18600D+0.4R+2.8D+3.2
20162016_Pres-G_UTPres-G2016-10-18700R+2.6R+18.1D+15.5
20162016_Pres-G_PAPres-G2016-10-18800D+4.0R+0.7D+4.7
20162016_Pres-G_NHPres-G2016-10-18900D+8.0D+0.4D+7.6
20162016_Pres-G_MOPres-G2016-10-18600R+8.0R+18.6D+10.6
20142014_House-G_MA-9House-G2014-10-28410D+5.0D+10.0R+5.0
20142014_House-G_MA-6House-G2014-10-28400R+2.0D+13.8R+15.8
20142014_Gov-G_MAGov-G2014-10-28627R+6.0R+1.9R+4.1
20142014_House-G_MA-9House-G2014-10-18302D+3.0D+10.0R+7.0
20142014_House-G_MA-6House-G2014-10-14400R+3.0D+13.8R+16.8
20132013_Gov-G_VAGov-G2013-10-28874D+2.0D+2.5R+0.5
20132013_Sen-GS_MASen-G2013-06-201,422D+10.0D+10.2R+0.2

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.