Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
12 shown · 141 total
Don't know 15.6% · Someone else 0.4% · Ashley Moody 45.9% · Alexander Vindman 38%
Don't know 15.4% · Someone else 0.9% · Ashley Moody 47.3% · Angie Nixon 36.3%
Don't know 16.8% · Someone else 1.8% · Byron Donalds 45.2% · Jerry Demings 36.2%
Casey DeSantis 7% · Byron Donalds 44%
Jay Collins 4% · Byron Donalds 46% · James Fishback 4% · Paul Renner 3%
Don't know 14.6% · Someone else 1.8% · Byron Donalds 44.2% · David Jolly 39.4%
Don't know 5.7% · Someone else 5.1% · John Sununu 43.7% · Chris Pappas 45.4%
Don't know 7.1% · Someone else 5.8% · Scott Brown 39.3% · Chris Pappas 47.8%
Don't know 3.4% · Someone else 8% · Susan Collins 42.5% · Janet Mills 46.2%
Don't know 5.8% · Someone else 5.8% · Susan Collins 40.6% · Graham Platner 47.8%
Scott Brown 19% · John E. Sununu 48%
Don't know 9.7% · Derek Dooley 41.4% · Jon Ossoff 48.9%
50 shown · 230 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_NM-3 | House-G | 2022-10-27 | 326 | D+18.1 | D+16.3 | D+1.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_NM-2 | House-G | 2022-10-27 | 302 | R+10.6 | D+0.7 | R+11.3 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_NM-1 | House-G | 2022-10-27 | 372 | D+11.4 | D+11.5 | R+0.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_OK | Gov-G | 2022-10-27 | 1,000 | R+9.6 | R+13.7 | D+4.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NM | Gov-G | 2022-10-27 | 1,000 | D+1.6 | D+6.4 | R+4.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NY | Sen-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,000 | D+13.2 | D+14.0 | R+0.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,000 | D+9.8 | D+15.3 | R+5.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NY | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,000 | D+7.2 | D+6.4 | D+0.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,000 | D+9.3 | D+12.5 | R+3.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_SD | Sen-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,500 | R+31.0 | R+43.5 | D+12.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,000 | D+12.3 | D+14.9 | R+2.6 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_CT-5 | House-G | 2022-10-20 | 500 | R+0.7 | D+0.8 | R+1.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_SD | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,500 | R+18.9 | R+26.8 | D+7.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_CT | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 1,000 | D+10.7 | D+12.8 | R+2.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2022-10-19 | 727 | D+4.1 | D+9.1 | R+5.0 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-19 | 1,000 | R+4.9 | R+2.7 | R+2.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2022-10-19 | 727 | R+12.9 | R+15.6 | D+2.7 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 2022-10-18 | 1,000 | R+9.7 | R+10.9 | D+1.2 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-23 | 875 | D+0.9 | R+1.9 | D+2.8 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_NJ | Gov-G | 2021-10-17 | 600 | D+4.4 | D+3.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2021 | 2021_House-GS_OH-15 | House-G | 2021-10-15 | 445 | R+11.1 | R+16.6 | D+5.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GSR_GA | Sen-G | 2020-12-15 | 605 | R+2.4 | D+2.1 | R+4.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2020-12-15 | 605 | R+2.0 | D+1.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-OS_GA | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 749 | D+14.4 | D+7.0 | D+7.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 763 | R+4.0 | R+9.6 | D+5.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 855 | D+3.2 | R+1.8 | D+5.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 700 | D+5.8 | D+1.7 | D+4.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_ME | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 611 | D+1.8 | R+8.6 | D+10.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 604 | D+3.1 | R+6.6 | D+9.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 749 | D+1.3 | R+1.8 | D+3.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-30 | 732 | D+2.7 | D+2.4 | D+0.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 751 | D+7.3 | D+0.6 | D+6.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_TX | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 763 | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | D+4.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 823 | D+4.9 | D+1.2 | D+3.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 656 | D+0.9 | R+8.0 | D+8.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 720 | D+1.7 | D+2.4 | R+0.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 855 | D+0.3 | R+1.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_N2 | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 806 | D+2.6 | D+6.5 | R+3.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 700 | D+6.5 | D+2.8 | D+3.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_ME | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 611 | D+11.4 | D+9.1 | D+2.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_M2 | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 301 | D+3.0 | R+7.4 | D+10.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_M1 | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 310 | D+19.0 | D+23.1 | R+4.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 604 | R+1.2 | R+8.2 | D+7.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 749 | R+0.6 | D+0.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 849 | D+5.8 | R+3.4 | D+9.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-30 | 732 | D+2.1 | D+0.3 | D+1.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_NE-2 | House-G | 2020-10-30 | 806 | R+3.0 | R+4.6 | D+1.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2020-10-30 | 855 | D+9.9 | D+4.5 | D+5.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-26 | 1,121 | D+4.2 | D+4.5 | R+0.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2020-10-20 | 435 | R+4.1 | R+6.6 | D+2.5 |
5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.