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Pollster file

Emerson College

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
230
Mean absolute error
4.19percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.37
Represented cycles
112013–2025
Current archive
148canonical records
History span
Jun 20, 2013through Oct 31, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Emerson · Emerson College (D)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

230 eligible historical polls across 11 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 148 total

Rhoden +19

Larry Rhoden 60% · Dan Ahlers 41%

Field dates
Oct 19–Oct 20, 2026
Sample
803 LV
Sponsor / client
KELO-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rounds +8

Mike Rounds 50% · Brian Bengs 42%

Field dates
Oct 19–Oct 20, 2026
Sample
803 LV
Sponsor / client
KELO-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Talarico +1.5

Ted Brown 2.8% · Ken Paxton 47.83% · James Talarico 49.37%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Abbott +4.5

Pat Dixon 2.34% · Greg Abbott 51.07% · Gina Hinojosa 46.59%

Field dates
Oct 17–Oct 19, 2026
Sample
1,000 LV
Sponsor / client
Nexstar
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Cognetti +4

Rob Bresnahan Jr. 48% · Paige Cognetti 52%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
396 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rhoden +19

Daniel P. Ahlers 40.5% · Larry Rhoden 59.5%

Field dates
Oct 19–Oct 21, 2026
Sample
803 LV
Sponsor / client
KELO-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Rounds +8

Brian Bengs 46% · Mike Rounds 54%

Field dates
Oct 19–Oct 21, 2026
Sample
803 LV
Sponsor / client
KELO-TV
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Lawrence +8

William Lawrence 53% · Tom Barrett 45%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
314 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ager +13

Jamie Ager 56% · Jennifer Balkcom 43%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
388 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Nez +2

Eli Crane 48% · Jonathan Nez 50%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
345 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Hill +4

French Hill 52% · Chris Jones 48%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
383 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Wellman +5

Ann Wagner 46% · Fred Wellman 51%

Field dates
Oct 12–Oct 14, 2026
Sample
401 LV
Sponsor / client
Poll Vault
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 230 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-31—D+11.0D+15.4R+4.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-10-31—D+2.0D+6.7R+4.7
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-28—D+2.0D+14.4R+12.4
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—0R+0.9D+0.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—0R+3.1D+3.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+3.2D+2.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
2024IA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+10.0R+13.2D+3.2
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-02—R+2.0R+5.5D+3.5
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—D+1.0R+3.1D+4.1
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-24—0R+1.5D+1.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—R+2.0R+3.2D+1.2
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-16—D+1.0R+1.5D+2.5
2022GA · SenateSen-G2022-11-29888D+1.6D+2.8R+1.2
2022OR · SenateSen-G2022-11-01975D+17.0D+14.9D+2.1
2022OR · GovernorGov-G2022-11-01975D+5.5D+3.4D+2.1
2022OH · SenateSen-G2022-10-311,000R+8.9R+6.1R+2.8
2022NH · SenateSen-G2022-10-31850D+4.5D+9.1R+4.6
2022AZ · SenateSen-G2022-10-311,000R+0.4D+4.9R+5.3
2022OH · GovernorGov-G2022-10-311,000R+20.8R+25.0D+4.2
2022NH · GovernorGov-G2022-10-31850R+20.8R+15.6R+5.2
2022AZ · GovernorGov-G2022-10-311,000R+3.5D+0.7R+4.2
2022PA · SenateSen-G2022-10-301,000R+1.1D+4.9R+6.0
2022NY · SenateSen-G2022-10-301,000D+18.5D+14.0D+4.5
2022GA · SenateSen-G2022-10-301,000D+1.9D+1.0D+0.9
2022PA · GovernorGov-G2022-10-301,000D+10.4D+14.8R+4.4
2022NY · GovernorGov-G2022-10-301,000D+8.7D+6.4D+2.3
2022MI · GovernorGov-G2022-10-30900D+5.1D+10.5R+5.4
2022GA · GovernorGov-G2022-10-301,000R+5.6R+7.5D+1.9
2022WI · SenateSen-G2022-10-281,000R+4.6R+1.0R+3.6
2022NV · SenateSen-G2022-10-282,000R+5.2D+0.8R+6.0
2022NC · SenateSen-G2022-10-281,000R+5.7R+3.2R+2.5
2022KS · SenateSen-G2022-10-281,000R+21.6R+23.0D+1.4
2022CO · SenateSen-G2022-10-281,000D+8.1D+14.6R+6.5
2022NV-4 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-28480D+3.3D+4.8R+1.5
2022NV-3 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-28510R+4.2D+4.0R+8.2
2022NV-2 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-28530R+25.7R+21.9R+3.8
2022NV-1 · HouseHouse-G2022-10-28480R+11.6D+5.6R+17.2
2022WI · GovernorGov-G2022-10-281,000R+1.9D+3.4R+5.3
2022NV · GovernorGov-G2022-10-282,000R+4.0R+1.5R+2.5
2022KS · GovernorGov-G2022-10-281,000D+4.6D+2.2D+2.4
2022CO · GovernorGov-G2022-10-281,000D+13.4D+19.4R+6.0
2022OK · SenateSen-G2022-10-271,000R+27.3R+32.2D+4.9
2022MO · SenateSen-G2022-10-271,000R+13.5R+13.3R+0.2
2022OK · SenateSen-G2022-10-271,000R+22.6R+26.5D+3.9

5 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (NYC-G · Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.