Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
9 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
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Don't know 31% · Would not vote 2% · Someone else 2% · Shelley Hughes 2% · Matt Heilala 2% · Nancy Dahlstrom 2% · Adam Crum 4% · Treg Taylor 5%
9 shown · 9 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | AK-1 · House | House-G | 2022-11-03 | 400 | D+12.0 | D+9.9 | D+2.1 |
| 2022 | AK-1 · House | House-G | 2022-11-03 | 400 | D+23.0 | D+22.9 | D+0.1 |
| 2022 | AK-1 · House | House-G | 2022-11-03 | 400 | D+23.0 | D+22.8 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | AK · Governor | Gov-G | 2022-10-23 | 403 | R+24.0 | R+26.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2010 | AK · Governor | Gov-G | 2010-10-26 | 421 | R+12.0 | R+21.5 | D+9.5 |
| 2010 | AK · Governor | Gov-G | 2010-10-25 | 356 | R+10.0 | R+21.5 | D+11.5 |
| 2008 | AK · President | Pres-G | 2008-10-27 | 489 | R+19.0 | R+21.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2006 | AK · Governor | Gov-G | 2006-11-04 | 613 | R+6.1 | R+7.4 | D+1.3 |
| 2006 | AK · Governor | Gov-G | 2006-10-21 | 510 | R+9.0 | R+7.4 | R+1.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.