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Pollster file

co/efficient

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
23
Mean absolute error
5.92percentage points
Historical bias
R+3.56
Represented cycles
52019–2025
Current archive
43canonical records
History span
Sep 6, 2019through Oct 27, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
co/efficient (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2025

23 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 43 total

Pappas +6

Don't know 10% · Generic Republican 42% · Chris Pappas 48%

Field dates
Sep 10–Sep 12, 2025
Sample
904 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Tied

Dem 46% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Jun 12–Jun 16, 2025
Sample
1,035 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 45% · Rep 42%

Field dates
May 7–May 9, 2025
Sample
1,462 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Hochul +1

Don't know 14% · Elise Stefanik 42% · Kathy Hochul 43%

Field dates
May 1–May 2, 2025
Sample
1,163 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2

Dem 44% · Rep 46%

Field dates
Feb 15–Feb 17, 2025
Sample
2,063 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Hochul +6

Kathy Hochul 47% · Bruce Blakeman 41%

Field dates
Jun 30–Jul 2, 2026
Sample
1,085 LV
Sponsor / client
Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
LePage +10

Matt Dunlap 40% · Paul LePage 50%

Field dates
Apr 25–Apr 29, 2026
Sample
918 LV
Sponsor / client
NRCC
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Senate · R primary

Texas · Senate

Cornyn +1

John Cornyn 28% · Ken Paxton 27% · Wesley Hunt 19%

Field dates
Dec 1–Dec 3, 2025
Sample
1,022 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +1

Mikie Sherrill 47% · Jack Ciattarelli 46%

Field dates
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2025
Sample
995 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +5

Abigail Spanberger 49% · Winsome Earle-Sears 44%

Field dates
Oct 15–Oct 17, 2025
Sample
937 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Pappas +3

Chris Pappas 45% · John Sununu 42%

Field dates
Oct 9–Oct 13, 2025
Sample
1,034 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +6

Abigail Spanberger 49% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43% · Donna Charles 1%

Field dates
Sep 22–Sep 23, 2025
Sample
1,024 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

23 shown · 23 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-10-27—D+1.0D+14.4R+13.4
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-17—D+5.0D+15.4R+10.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-10-17—R+4.0D+6.7R+10.7
20222022_Sen-G_COSen-G2022-11-05856D+8.0D+14.6R+6.6
20222022_Gov-G_COGov-G2022-11-05856D+12.0D+19.4R+7.3
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-10-271,716R+3.0D+4.9R+7.9
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-10-271,716D+10.0D+14.8R+4.8
20222022_Sen-G_NHSen-G2022-10-261,0980D+9.1R+9.1
20222022_House-G_NH-2House-G2022-10-26573R+1.0D+11.7R+12.7
20222022_House-G_NH-1House-G2022-10-26525D+4.0D+8.1R+4.1
20222022_Gov-G_NHGov-G2022-10-261,098R+18.0R+15.6R+2.4
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-25946R+3.4D+1.0R+4.4
20222022_Sen-G_COSen-G2022-10-25826D+15.5D+14.6D+0.9
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-10-211,111D+1.8D+4.9R+3.1
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-10-211,111R+3.3D+0.7R+4.0
20222022_Sen-G_WASen-G2022-10-201,181D+3.0D+14.6R+11.6
20222022_Gov-G_NYGov-G2022-10-191,056R+1.0D+6.4R+7.4
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-21785R+4.0R+1.9R+2.1
20202020_Pres-G_VTPres-G2020-10-20584D+30.0D+35.6R+5.6
20202020_Sen-G_KSSen-G2020-10-192,453R+12.0R+11.4R+0.6
20202020_Pres-G_KSPres-G2020-10-192,453R+17.0R+14.7R+2.4
20202020_House-G_PA-8House-G2020-10-14615D+5.0D+3.5D+1.4
20192019_House-GS_NC-9House-G2019-09-061,175D+1.5R+2.0D+3.5

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.