Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
6 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Don't know 22.03% · None/other 1.93% · Ryan Walton 0.8% · Suzanne Seymour 1.94% · Adam Ortiz 1.59% · Gerald Malloy 28.3% · Becca Balint 43.28% · Phoenix Altair 0.14%
June Goodband 0.41% · Dean Roy 1.32% · Brian Judd 1.68% · None/other 2.89% · Don't know 20.19% · Amanda Janoo 31.96% · Phil Scott 41.56%
Don't know 17.77% · None/other 1.16% · Ryan Walton 0.51% · Suzanne Seymour 1.9% · Adam Ortiz 1.33% · Gerald Malloy 30.25% · Becca Balint 46.92% · Phoenix Altair 0.16%
June Goodband 0.47% · Dean Roy 1.05% · Brian Judd 1.92% · None/other 2.46% · Don't know 15.95% · Amanda Janoo 34.43% · Phil Scott 43.73%
6 shown · 6 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | VT · Senate | Sen-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+37.0 | D+28.3 | D+8.7 |
| 2016 | VT · President | Pres-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+28.0 | D+26.6 | D+1.4 |
| 2016 | VT · Governor | Gov-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | R+7.0 | R+8.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2011 | KY · Governor | Gov-G | 2011-10-18 | 802 | D+28.0 | D+20.4 | D+7.6 |
| 2010 | KY · Senate | Sen-G | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+7.5 | R+11.5 | D+4.0 |
| 2010 | KY-3 · House | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 504 | D+26.5 | D+10.7 | D+15.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.