Braun Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 6
- Mean absolute error
- 6.54percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.18
- Represented cycles
- 32010–2016
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 19, 2010through Oct 21, 2016
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2011 · 2016
6 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
6 shown · 6 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_VT | Sen-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+37.0 | D+28.3 | D+8.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VT | Pres-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | D+28.0 | D+26.6 | D+1.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_VT | Gov-G | 2016-10-21 | 603 | R+7.0 | R+8.8 | D+1.8 |
| 2011 | 2011_Gov-G_KY | Gov-G | 2011-10-18 | 802 | D+28.0 | D+20.4 | D+7.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+7.5 | R+11.5 | D+4.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_KY-3 | House-G | 2010-10-19 | 504 | D+26.5 | D+10.7 | D+15.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.