Kansas Senate polls 2026
Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
The polls and the poll average
drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its pollOct 28, 2026D+0.2today's poll average of 14 polls
- poll in the average · area is its weight
- trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.
Data table
| Days | Average as it stood | Trend line |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2026 | D+0.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026 | D+0.2 | D+0.2 |
| Oct 14–Oct 22, 2026 | D+0.5 | D+0.4 to D+0.3 |
| Oct 10–Oct 13, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.5 to D+0.4 |
| Oct 4–Oct 9, 2026 | D+0.6 | D+0.6 to D+0.5 |
| Oct 1–Oct 3, 2026 | R+0.6 | D+0.5 to D+0.6 |
| Sep 30, 2026 | R+1.0 | D+0.4 |
| Sep 16–Sep 29, 2026 | R+1.2 | R+1.2 to D+0.3 |
| Sep 10–Sep 15, 2026 | R+2.6 | R+1.8 to R+1.2 |
| Aug 16–Sep 9, 2026 | R+1.2 | R+1.2 to R+1.9 |
| Aug 8–Aug 15, 2026 | R+2.7 | R+2.0 to R+1.2 |
| Jul 13–Aug 7, 2026 | R+4.6 | R+4.6 to R+2.2 |
| Jan 28–Jul 12, 2026 | R+8.0 | R+8.0 to R+4.6 |
In Senate races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at a quarter of its weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at R+0.1.
Every poll on file · 15
newest added first14 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted · 2 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Sample | Result | Added | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 1,301 LV | R+1.0Roger Marshall 46Adam Hamilton 45 | 2d ago | 0.93 | Poll release | |
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | R+1.1Roger Marshall 47.7Adam Hamilton 46.6David Graham 3.4Don't know 2.3 | 0.80 | Poll release | ||
| ●Emerson CollegeGeneral | 750 LV | D+1.5Adam Hamilton 44.75Roger Marshall 43.3Don't know 8.25David Graham 3.7 | 0.46 | Poll release | ||
| ●InsiderAdvantageGeneral | 1,200 LV | D+0.8Adam Hamilton 47.5Roger Marshall 46.7David Graham 3.4Don't know 2.4 | 0.77 | Poll release | ||
| ●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | D+5.0Adam Hamilton 46Roger Marshall 41David Graham 7+1 other release | 0.51 | Pollster post | ||
| ●YouGovGeneral | 2,253 LV | D+3.0Adam Hamilton 48Roger Marshall 45Don't know 5Would not vote 1Someone else 1 | 0.76 | Poll document | ||
| ●The New York Times/Siena CollegeGeneral | 605 LV | R+0.3Roger Marshall 46.67Adam Hamilton 46.39Don't know 6.6Someone else 0.35+1 other release | 0.48 | News coverage | ||
| ●Trafalgar GroupGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 1,095 LV | D+0.9Adam Hamilton 44.4Roger Marshall 43.5Don't know 10.1David Graham 2 | 0.66 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | D+2.0Adam Hamilton 49Roger Marshall 47+1 other release | 0.47 | Poll release | ||
| ●co/efficientGeneral | 915 LV | R+5.0Roger Marshall 49Adam Hamilton 44Don't know 5David Graham 2+1 other release | 0.47 | Poll release | ||
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | D+1.0Adam Hamilton 44Roger Marshall 43David Graham 5 | 0.33 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — RV | R+1.0Roger Marshall 46Adam Hamilton 45Don't know 9 | 0.25 | Poll document |
Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.