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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · SEN-KS

Kansas Senate polls

Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateR+2.0same figure as the race page
Polls55 recorded polls · 5 eligible for the aggregate · 5 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (3 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+10R+5EVEND+5Mar ’26MayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 6

newest first

5 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted · 2 primary polls on file, not listed here

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
co/efficientGeneral915 LVRoger Marshall 49Adam Hamilton 44Don't know 5David Graham 2+1 other release2d ago0.548Poll release
Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan800 LVAdam Hamilton 44Roger Marshall 43David Graham 50.204Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan RVRoger Marshall 46Adam Hamilton 45Don't know 90.208Poll document
GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan600 LVRoger Marshall 47Adam Hamilton 430.074News coverage
GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan500 LVRoger Marshall 49Patrick Schmidt 45Don't know 6not in the aggregatePollster post
Tavern ResearchGeneral1,013 LVRoger Marshall 55Noah Taylor 45+6 other releases0.000Poll release

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.