Kansas Senate polls
Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateR+2.0same figure as the race page
Polls55 recorded polls · 5 eligible for the aggregate · 5 with positive weight
Latest field dateSep 10Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-09-10 (3 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 6
newest first5 in the aggregate · 1 shown, not counted · 2 primary polls on file, not listed here
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●co/efficientGeneral | 915 LV | Roger Marshall 49Adam Hamilton 44Don't know 5David Graham 2+1 other release | 2d ago | 0.548 | Poll release | |
| ●Global Strategy GroupGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 800 LV | Adam Hamilton 44Roger Marshall 43David Graham 5 | 0.204 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — RV | Roger Marshall 46Adam Hamilton 45Don't know 9 | 0.208 | Poll document | ||
| ●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 600 LV | Roger Marshall 47Adam Hamilton 43 | 0.074 | News coverage | ||
| GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Roger Marshall 49Patrick Schmidt 45Don't know 6 | not in the aggregate | Pollster post | ||
| ●Tavern ResearchGeneral | 1,013 LV | Roger Marshall 55Noah Taylor 45+6 other releases | 0.000 | Poll release |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.