TX-15 House polls
Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+4.5same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 22Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-22 (22 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 6
newest first4 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral | 700 LV | Bobby Pulido 50Monica De La Cruz 45Don't know 5 | 0.287 | Poll document | ||
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral · House | 700 LV | Bobby Pulido 50Monica De La Cruz 45 | not in the aggregate | Poll document | ||
| Normington, Petts & AssociatesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | — LV | Generic Democrat 48Generic Republican 46+1 other release | not in the aggregate | Poll release | ||
| ●Normington PettsGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan | 553 LV | Bobby Pulido 51Monica De La Cruz 45 | 0.054 | Poll release | ||
| ●ApplecartGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 802 LV | Bobby Pulido 48Monica De La Cruz 46+2 other releases | 0.011 | Poll release | ||
| ●Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 533 LV | Monica De La Cruz 41Bobby Pulido 38+1 other release | 0.000 | Poll document |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.