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FORECAST51 DAYS OUT
Race polling · HOU-TX-15

TX-15 House polls

Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Adjusted aggregateD+4.5same figure as the race page
Polls44 recorded polls · 4 eligible for the aggregate · 4 with positive weight
Latest field dateAug 22Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-08-22 (22 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition

The polls the model reads

hover, tap or Tab to any poll
last 30 daysR+5EVEND+5D+10Sep ’25NovJan ’26MarMayJulSep
  • counted poll · area is its model weight
  • weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
  • poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
  • published average
  • 30 days before this edition

Every poll on file · 6

newest first

4 in the aggregate · 2 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedAddedSampleResultWeightSource
Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral700 LVBobby Pulido 50Monica De La Cruz 45Don't know 50.287Poll document
Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey CenterGeneral · House700 LVBobby Pulido 50Monica De La Cruz 45not in the aggregatePoll document
Normington, Petts & AssociatesGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan LVGeneric Democrat 48Generic Republican 46+1 other releasenot in the aggregatePoll release
Normington PettsGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan553 LVBobby Pulido 51Monica De La Cruz 450.054Poll release
ApplecartGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan802 LVBobby Pulido 48Monica De La Cruz 46+2 other releases0.011Poll release
Public Policy PollingGeneral · House · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan533 LVMonica De La Cruz 41Bobby Pulido 38+1 other release0.000Poll document

Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.