Race polling · HOU-NC-1

NC-1 House polls 2026

Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+3.7the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page

Polls99 on file · 8 in the poll average · 1 not counted

Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (5 days old)

EditionOct 28the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 28, 2026D+3.7today's poll average of 8 polls

poll in the average · area is its weight
trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table

The poll average as the edition published it for each stretch of days, and the trend line drawn over the same days.
Days	Average as it stood	Trend line
Oct 28, 2026	D+3.7	D+3.7
Oct 23–Oct 27, 2026	D+3.7	D+3.7
Oct 8–Oct 22, 2026	D+5.1	D+5.1 to D+3.7
Oct 6–Oct 7, 2026	D+7.3	D+5.3 to D+5.2
Oct 4–Oct 5, 2026	D+6.2	D+5.5 to D+5.4
Sep 11–Oct 3, 2026	D+5.1	D+5.1 to D+5.7
Jun 28–Sep 10, 2026	D+2.3	D+2.3 to D+5.1
Apr 29–Jun 27, 2026	D+0.7	D+0.7 to D+2.3
Feb 2–Apr 28, 2026	D+3.0	D+3.0 to D+0.7

In House races the forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+2.8.

Every poll on file · 9

newest added first

8 in the poll average · 1 shown, not counted

Pollster	Fielded	Sample	Result	Added	Weight	Source
●RedBox ResearchGeneral · D sponsor · D partisan	Oct 23, 2026	1,468 LV	D+1.0Don Davis 45Laurie Buckhout 44	Oct 2812h ago	0.94	Poll release
Neighborhood Research and MediaGeneral · House	Oct 6, 2026	303 LV	D+10.0Don Davis 51Laurie Buckhout 41	Oct 15	counted once · listed twice	Pollster post
●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Oct 8, 2026	623 LV	R+1.0Generic Republican 46Generic Democrat 45Don't know 8Generic Candidate 1+1 other release	Oct 9	0.54	News coverage
●Neighborhood Research CorporationGeneral	Oct 6, 2026	303 LV	D+10.0Don Davis 51Laurie Buckhout 41+1 other release	Oct 8	0.37	Pollster post
●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Oct 4, 2026	500 LV	D+8.0Don Davis 47Laurie Buckhout 39Don't know 8	Oct 7	0.46	Poll document
●GBAOGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Sep 11, 2026	500 LV	D+7.0Don Davis 50Laurie Buckhout 43	Sep 15	0.35	Pollster post
●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Jun 28, 2026	500 LV	D+4.0Don Davis 45Laurie Buckhout 41Don't know 8	Jul 1	0.15	Pollster post
●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan	Apr 29, 2026	842 LV	R+4.0Generic Republican 46Generic Democrat 42Don't know 9+1 other release	May 8	0.10	News coverage
●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan	Feb 2, 2026	500 LV	D+3.0Don Davis 42Laurie Buckhout 39Don't know 10Thomas Aaron Bailey 9+1 other release	Mar 6	0.03	Pollster post

Poll archive as of October 29, 2026. It can hold polls newer than the forecast; a poll listed here is not necessarily in it.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.