NC-1 House polls
Don Davis (D) vs Laurie Buckhout (R). The polls the model aggregates, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.
Adjusted aggregateD+0.9same figure as the race page
Polls33 recorded polls · 3 eligible for the aggregate · 3 with positive weight
Latest field dateJun 28Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-06-28 (77 days old)
EditionSep 13weights and corrections as of this edition
The polls the model reads
hover, tap or Tab to any poll- counted poll · area is its model weight
- weight exactly zero · shown, not counted
- poll trend · smoothed across nearby polls, larger and non-partisan ones count more · the recent end firms up as polls arrive
- published average
- 30 days before this edition
Every poll on file · 3
newest first3 in the aggregate · 0 shown, not counted
| Pollster | Fielded | Added | Sample | Result | Weight | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Don Davis 45Laurie Buckhout 41Don't know 8 | 0.034 | Pollster post | ||
| ●co/efficientGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan | 842 LV | Generic Republican 46Generic Democrat 42Don't know 9+1 other release | 0.004 | News coverage | ||
| ●GQRGeneral · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan | 500 LV | Don Davis 42Laurie Buckhout 39Don't know 10Thomas Aaron Bailey 9+1 other release | 0.000 | Pollster post |
Archive source date 2026-09-13. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.