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FORECAST10 DAYS OUT
Race polling · GOV-NY

New York Governor polls

Kathy Hochul (D) vs Bruce Blakeman (R). The polls in the poll average, each with its weight and source, then every public poll on file. The forecast itself lives on the race page.

Poll averageD+11.8the polls’ average, each as published · same figure as the race page
Polls5050 on file · 29 in the poll average · 21 not counted
Latest field dateOct 23Eligible polls: latest poll: 2026-10-23 (1 day old)
EditionOct 23the poll average and its weights as of this edition

The polls and the poll average

drag or tap for a day · tap a dot for its poll

Oct 23, 2026D+11.8today's poll average of 29 polls

EVEND+10D+20D+30Jan ’26AprJulOct
  • poll in the average · area is its weight
  • not counted · shown, never moves the line
  • trend through the counted polls · ends on today's average
  • left of the break: 2 earlier polls, not on the time axis

The line is a trend, not the average as it stood each day: the same polls and weights, with each poll leaning in smoothly over the weeks before its date. It starts at the first counted poll and ends on today's average.

Data table
DaysAverage as it stoodTrend line
Oct 23, 2026D+11.8D+11.8
Oct 19–Oct 22, 2026D+11.3D+11.7 to D+11.8
Oct 14–Oct 18, 2026D+11.4D+11.3 to D+11.7
Oct 6–Oct 13, 2026D+11.5D+11.5 to D+11.3
Oct 5, 2026D+11.2D+11.5
Oct 4, 2026D+10.9D+11.4
Sep 25–Oct 3, 2026D+10.9D+11.0 to D+11.4
Sep 20–Sep 24, 2026D+11.4D+11.2 to D+11.0
Sep 17–Sep 19, 2026D+9.7D+11.2
Aug 31–Sep 16, 2026D+9.9D+9.9 to D+11.1
Aug 21–Aug 30, 2026D+11.2D+11.1 to D+10.0
Aug 6–Aug 20, 2026D+10.2D+10.2 to D+11.1
Jul 28–Aug 5, 2026D+10.4D+10.2
Jul 12–Jul 27, 2026D+10.0D+10.0 to D+10.3
Jul 2–Jul 11, 2026D+12.4D+11.8 to D+10.1
Jun 23–Jul 1, 2026D+15.2D+14.2 to D+12.1
Jun 14–Jun 22, 2026D+13.9D+14.0 to D+14.4
Apr 30–Jun 13, 2026D+14.9D+14.9 to D+14.0
Mar 26–Apr 29, 2026D+14.8D+14.8 to D+14.9
Mar 8–Mar 25, 2026D+15.3D+15.3 to D+14.8
Feb 26–Mar 7, 2026D+17.2D+16.8 to D+15.3
Feb 19–Feb 25, 2026D+17.3D+16.9
Feb 4–Feb 18, 2026D+17.4D+17.4 to D+17.0
Jan 28–Feb 3, 2026D+19.4D+18.3 to D+17.5
Jan 8–Jan 27, 2026D+17.7D+17.7 to D+18.5
Dec 12–Jan 7, 2026D+20.1D+20.1 to D+17.7
Nov 10–Dec 11, 2025D+11.0D+11.0 to D+20.0

The forecast then counts a poll sponsored by a party or campaign at full weight and moves its margin 2 points against that party, which puts the average it reads at D+12.2.

Every poll on file · 50

newest first

29 in the poll average · 21 shown, not counted

PollsterFieldedSampleResultAddedWeightSource
●ActiVoteGeneral400 LVD+18.0Kathy Hochul 59Bruce Blakeman 418h ago0.54Poll release
●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral1,167 LVD+14.0Kathy Hochul 55Bruce Blakeman 41Don't know 4Would not vote 0Someone else 01d ago0.89Poll release
●OnMessage Inc.General · REP sponsor · REP partisan1,000 LVD+4.4Kathy Hochul 50.3Bruce Blakeman 45.94d ago0.78News coverage
●Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchGeneral · Governor · OTH sponsor · OTH partisan820 RVD+22.0Kathy Hochul 53Bruce Blakeman 310.64News coverage
●OnMessage Inc.General · R sponsor · R partisan1,000 LVD+4.0Kathy Hochul 50Bruce Blakeman 462d ago0.71News coverage
●Emerson CollegeGeneral900 LVD+12.7Kathy Hochul 52.41Bruce Blakeman 39.74Don't know 7.850.66Poll release
●Marist UniversityGeneral1,361 RVD+11.0Kathy Hochul 53Bruce Blakeman 42Don't know 5Someone else 10.80Poll release
●co/efficientGeneral · Governor · REP sponsor · REP partisan1,046 LVD+7.0Kathy Hochul 48Bruce Blakeman 410.64News coverage
●Quinnipiac UniversityGeneral1,026 LVD+19.0Kathy Hochul 58Bruce Blakeman 39Don't know 3Would not vote 0Someone else 00.60Poll release
●Siena UniversityGeneral1,144 LVD+9.0Kathy Hochul 50Bruce Blakeman 41Don't know/Someone else 90.61Poll release
●McLaughlin & AssociatesGeneral · REP sponsor · REP partisan800 LVD+3.9Kathy Hochul 49.6Bruce Blakeman 45.7Don't know 4.70.42News coverage
●Concord Public Opinion PartnersGeneral · Governor · DEM sponsor · DEM partisan505 LVD+16.0Kathy Hochul 50Bruce Blakeman 340.30News coverage

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

Model rows carry what the source record provides: pollster, field dates, sample size and D/R shares where published. Archive rows come from the broad public harvest. Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.