Analysis · 2026 pollster scorecard
Targoz Market Research
Ranked 27 of 28 pollsters with 5 or more final polls. 17 general-election polls this cycle (number 43 of 251 pollsters by volume), 7 of them a final poll of a race.
- Final polls
- 7
- Average miss
- 8.3
- Leaned
- R+8.3
- Leader won
- 86%
- Vs. field
- +3.8
- Score
- +2.3
Leaned is over 7 polls of Democrat-versus-Republican races; leader won is over 7 polls in called races. Official counts as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST, with 22 of 506 races still being counted; 1 of its 7 polls is of a count that is not final.
By race type
| Race type | Polls | Avg. miss | Leaned | Leader won | Vs. field | All its polls, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House vote | 1 | 10.8 | R+10.8 | 100% | +5.9 | 1 |
| Senate | 3 | 6.5 | R+6.5 | 67% | +2.3 | 5 |
| Governor | 3 | 9.3 | R+9.3 | 100% | +4.7 | 11 |
| House districts | 0 | — | — | — | — | 0 |
Every scored poll
| Contest | Poll | Result | Missed toward | Field miss | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National House voteOct 20 to Oct 22 · 1,118 likely voters · count not finalDemocrats 49, Republicans 46; count 56.2 to 42.3 | D+3.0 | D+13.8 | R+10.8 | 4.9 | Release |
| Florida SenateOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,013 likely votersAngie Nixon 43, Ashley Moody 52; count 48.0 to 50.9 | R+9.0 | R+2.9 | R+6.1 | 2.9 | Release |
| South Carolina SenateOct 16 to Oct 25 · 895 likely votersAnnie Andrews 46, Darline Graham 47; count 51.1 to 46.6 | R+1.0 | D+4.5 | R+5.5 | 4.8 | Releasefor South Carolina Policy Council |
| Tennessee SenateOct 24 to Nov 2 · 716 likely votersMarquita Bradshaw 37, Bill Hagerty 57; count 42.9 to 55.1 | R+20.0 | R+12.2 | R+7.8 | 5.0† | Release |
| Florida governorOct 26 to Oct 29 · 1,014 likely votersDavid Jolly 43, Byron Donalds 50; count 48.7 to 50.0 | R+7.0 | R+1.3 | R+5.7 | 3.0 | Release |
| South Carolina governorOct 16 to Oct 25 · 895 likely votersJermaine Johnson 41, Alan Wilson 51; count 47.1 to 51.6 | R+10.0 | R+4.5 | R+5.5 | 5.2 | Releasefor South Carolina Policy Council |
| Tennessee governorOct 24 to Nov 2 · 718 likely votersJerri Green 35, Marsha Blackburn 54; count 43.0 to 45.5 | R+19.0 | R+2.5 | R+16.5 | 5.5 | Release |
Releases: National House vote · Florida Senate · South Carolina Senate · Tennessee Senate · Florida governor · South Carolina governor · Tennessee governor
From the New York Times table, every poll on this page.
† Fewer than two other pollsters released a final poll of this race, so the field miss is the average for that race type.
A poll’s margin is between the two candidates who finished first and second, in points; the result is the official count as of Nov 13, 5:39 PM EST. “Missed toward” names the party the poll favored compared with the result. How the score works is on the scorecard. Earlier elections and every 2026 poll: Targoz Market Research on the pollsters page.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.