2026 midterms · after the count
The 2026 elections, analyzed
Everything we published once the votes were counted, in one place: the election state by state and county by county, how every forecast, ours included, and every pollster did, and the readers’ prediction game.
- The 2026 election, state by statePDF · 202 pages · 12.1 MB
- How the 2026 forecast performedPDF · 54 pages · 3.0 MB
The election
The 2026 election, state by state
The full analysis: where the swing came from, the offices that changed hands in every state, with a page for each, and what the winners can now do.
Democrats won the Senate, the House and a majority of the governorships on a swing of about 15 points from 2024.
Where the vote moved
Every county against the 2024 vote: the regions and states that moved most, the surprises, the closest finishes and county patterns. Find your own county.
How much power changed hands
Seats, governments, legislative chambers, trifectas, counties and who can redraw the maps, before and after.
Among the races called, 57 seats and governorships changed party to the Democrats and 3 to the Republicans.
The new Congress
Who is new, who lost and the seats that changed party, state by state.
Democrats take the House and the Senate, and Congress gets 123 new members.
The new governors
Who won each governorship, who left and why, and the trifectas that changed.
20 states will have a new governor, and 5 change party.
Every result
The official counts: every office on one map, the races still being counted and every race against 2024.
19 races are still being counted.
The forecasts and the polls
How every 2026 forecast did
The election forecasts, ours among them, scored on the same called races; then our own forecast’s performance report.
Silver Bulletin ranked first of the 7 forecasts that covered all 471 scored races; ours was last.
How the pollsters did
Every pollster’s final polls against the official count: how far off they were, which way they leaned, and a ranking.
The final polls understated Democrats by 4.2 points. Public Policy Polling ranked first of 28.
The prediction game
How the readers’ ballots did against the results and against our forecast: the winner, the full table and the races that fooled most players.
@cmelectionprediction is the CTM Oracle 2026, first of 54 ballots.
Look it up
Your ballot
Type an address and see every 2026 result that was on that ballot, with how the county voted.
Lines
The 2026 House vote on the real maps, the proposed maps and the lines of past decades.