Analysis · Prediction game · results

@cmelectionprediction is the CTM Oracle 2026

With 473 of 489 races scored, @cmelectionprediction has 251.16 points, 8.83 ahead of @jeb_bungus, and nothing left to count can close that gap.

The top three, so far

First@cmelectionprediction251.16 points
453 of 473 winners right; margins off by 4.4 points on average in the close races.
CTM Oracle 2026
Second@jeb_bungus242.33 points
452 of 473 winners right; margins off by 4.5 points on average in the close races.
Third@combatwombat13238.58 points
449 of 473 winners right; margins off by 5.1 points on average in the close races.

First place is settled: no result in the 16 open races can change it. Second and third can still change.

How the field did

54ballots entered

85.1%of winners right on the average ballot

6.9 ptsthe average miss on the margin in the close races

31ballots outscored our own forecast

Scored as if it were a ballot, our forecast has 217.79 points: 442 of 473 winners, with the close races' margins off by 6.2 points on average. 31 ballots did better. The average of everyone’s margins, scored the same way, has 225.22.

Points per ballot

Each column counts the ballots in a 20-point band. The scores run from 13.10 to 251.16; the middle ballot has 219.61.

0 to 20 points3 ballots

20 to 40 points0 ballots

40 to 60 points1 ballot

60 to 80 points0 ballots

80 to 100 points1 ballot

100 to 120 points0 ballots

120 to 140 points0 ballots

140 to 160 points1 ballot

160 to 180 points0 ballots

180 to 200 points2 ballots

200 to 220 points20 ballots

24220 to 240 points24 ballots

240 to 260 points2 ballots

Our forecast: 217.79 points
Readers’ average: 225.22 points

Right winners, by office

The share of scored races each got right. A race left blank counts as a miss.

The average ballot
Our forecast

Senate

86.6%SenateThe average ballot: 86.6% of winners right

91.2%SenateOur forecast: 91.2% of winners right

Governor

83.8%GovernorThe average ballot: 83.8% of winners right

85.7%GovernorOur forecast: 85.7% of winners right

House

85.1%HouseThe average ballot: 85.1% of winners right

94.3%HouseOur forecast: 94.3% of winners right

All races

85.1%All racesThe average ballot: 85.1% of winners right

93.4%All racesOur forecast: 93.4% of winners right

The hardest races

The competitive races the fewest ballots called, with what the average ballot and our forecast expected.

Race	Result	Had the winner	Readers’ average	Our forecast
TX-09	Gutierrez +15.1	1 of 50	Mealer +4.4	Mealer +5.9
NV-02	Benitez-Thompson +5.8	4 of 50	Flippo +2.7	Flippo +3.7
IN-05	Ford +3.3	4 of 50	Spartz +4.1	Spartz +5.1
OH-15	Leonard +6.6	6 of 49	Carey +2.4	Carey +3.1
WI-01	Berman +3.9	6 of 50	Steil +1.4	Steil +2.0
OH-10	Knickerbocker +1.6	6 of 49	Turner +2.4	Turner +3.4
FL-09	Soto +0.5	7 of 49	Green +2.2	Green +3.1
MI-10	Hines +7.2	8 of 50	Bouchard +2.3	Bouchard +4.2

The race that cost the most ballots: TX-09, where 49 of 50 had the wrong winner.

Calls against our forecast that came in

Across the scored races, players picked against our favorite 626 times and were right 352 times. The loneliest right calls:

TX-09: Gutierrez won by 15.1; our forecast had the other side.One ballot of 50 had it: @cheyinka (margin off by 24.9).
NJ-02: Mullock won by 2.7; our forecast had the other side.One ballot of 48 had it: @rickityricksanchez (margin off by 1.6).
NV-02: Benitez-Thompson won by 5.8; our forecast had the other side.4 ballots of 50 had it: @bluewave2026 (margin off by 0.8), @azlawyer04 (margin off by 2.1), @jeb_bungus (margin off by 3.7) and @reddtrain (margin off by 5.4).
IN-05: Ford won by 3.3; our forecast had the other side.4 ballots of 50 had it: @bluewave2026 (margin off by 1.3), @humdrum (margin off by 1.7), @azlawyer04 (margin off by 1.8) and @combatwombat13 (margin off by 2.8).
Mississippi Senate: Colom won by 0.8; our forecast had the other side.4 ballots of 52 had it: @azlawyer04 (margin off by 0.3), @mcbarndt (margin off by 0.3), @cheyinka (margin off by 0.5) and @wifemento (margin off by 2.2).
OH-10: Knickerbocker won by 1.6; our forecast had the other side.6 ballots of 49 had it: @bluewave2026 (margin off by 0.4), @reddtrain (margin off by 0.7), @cmelectionprediction (margin off by 1.2), @donato (margin off by 1.8), @humdrum (margin off by 1.8) and 1 more.

Readers against our forecast

Every ballot could start from our forecast, so the average ballot sits close to it. In the 71 competitive races scored so far, the readers’ average margin landed closer to the result than ours in 54 and ours landed closer in 16. The readers’ average missed by 5.7 points a race and ours by 6.2; it had the winner in 49 of them, ours in 46.

Where readers and our forecast disagreed most

The 12 competitive races with the widest gap between the readers’ average margin and ours, and how each turned out.

Result
Readers’ average
Our forecast

Texas governor

Texas governorResult: Hinojosa +7.13
Readers’ average: Abbott +2.1
Our forecast: Abbott +4.6

Oregon governor

Oregon governorResult: Kotek +9.55
Readers’ average: Kotek +0.9
Our forecast: Drazan +1.4

Nevada governor

Nevada governorResult: Ford +7.56
Readers’ average: Lombardo +0.7
Our forecast: Lombardo +2.9

South Carolina Senate

South Carolina SenateResult: Andrews +4.50
Readers’ average: Graham +1.6
Our forecast: Graham +3.8

Nebraska Senate

Nebraska SenateResult: Ricketts +6.23
Readers’ average: Ricketts +1.0
Our forecast: Ricketts +3.0

MI-10

MI-10Result: Hines +7.16
Readers’ average: Bouchard +2.3
Our forecast: Bouchard +4.2

Georgia governor

Georgia governorResult: Bottoms +8.67
Readers’ average: Jackson +0.1
Our forecast: Jackson +2.0

VA-05

VA-05Result: McGuire +1.55
Readers’ average: McGuire +3.1
Our forecast: McGuire +4.9

MI-04

MI-04Result: McCann +1.81
Readers’ average: Huizenga +1.7
Our forecast: Huizenga +3.3

TX-09

TX-09Result: Gutierrez +15.10
Readers’ average: Mealer +4.4
Our forecast: Mealer +5.9

FL-16

FL-16Result: Gruters +4.24
Readers’ average: Gruters +3.0
Our forecast: Gruters +4.4

PA-01

PA-01Result: Harvie +5.73
Readers’ average: Fitzpatrick +0.7
Our forecast: Fitzpatrick +2.1

Every ballot 54 entries, 473 races scored

Rank	Player	Points	Winners right	Senate	Governor	House	Avg. margin miss	Close races
1	@cmelectionpredictionCTM Oracle 2026	251.16	453 of 473	31/34	32/35	390/404	4.4	101.02
2	@jeb_bungus	242.33	452 of 473	30/34	33/35	389/404	4.5	99.01
3	@combatwombat13	238.58	449 of 473	32/34	33/35	384/404	5.1	94.55
4	@kmurphy798	237.83	452 of 473	31/34	32/35	389/404	5.2	93.15
5	@reddtrain	237.05	448 of 473	30/34	33/35	385/404	4.8	92.48
6	@donato	233.73	448 of 473	32/34	30/35	386/404	5.3	91.79
7	@nix666	232.16	451 of 473	31/34	32/35	388/404	5.7	91.26
8	@trebach	231.63	448 of 473	31/34	32/35	385/404	5.1	89.68
9	@tfatf68	230.67	448 of 473	33/34	34/35	381/404	5.6	86.51
10	@humdrum	228.60	446 of 473	30/34	29/35	387/404	5.6	90.58
11	@cheyinka	228.52	436 of 473	31/34	34/35	371/404	6.1	90.57
12	@putinnuri	227.91	449 of 473	32/34	35/35	382/404	5.8	86.89
13	@mwt87	227.08	445 of 473	32/34	32/35	381/404	5.6	85.37
14	@rduran23	225.76	446 of 473	30/34	34/35	382/404	5.8	85.47
15	@coolhandheel	225.40	446 of 473	29/34	33/35	384/404	5.7	84.63
16	@ringmybell	224.62	446 of 473	32/34	33/35	381/404	5.9	82.41
17	@ovidarch	224.39	443 of 473	32/34	32/35	379/404	5.8	81.94
18	@azlawyer04	223.64	448 of 473	32/34	31/35	385/404	6.0	86.33
19	@joey07701	222.36	442 of 473	32/34	31/35	379/404	5.8	82.95
20	@sonnymarchbanks	222.30	445 of 473	32/34	32/35	381/404	6.0	81.49
21	@dmurphymcgraw14	221.77	445 of 473	31/34	33/35	381/404	6.1	80.95
22	@ics91	221.56	444 of 473	30/34	32/35	382/404	6.0	81.62
23	@gnys	221.33	441 of 473	32/34	30/35	379/404	5.9	80.74
24	@drfrfr	220.94	443 of 473	32/34	31/35	380/404	6.0	80.54
25	@mcbarndt	220.73	443 of 473	34/34	30/35	379/404	6.2	78.61
26	@efro121506	220.50	453 of 473	32/34	33/35	388/404	4.9	96.68
27	@kamikazee333	219.78	443 of 473	32/34	32/35	379/404	6.2	78.50
28	@nightowl925	219.43	446 of 473	30/34	32/35	384/404	6.2	82.24
29	@turquoisepaladin	218.98	442 of 473	31/34	32/35	379/404	6.1	78.16
30	@guidoj_ger	218.55	442 of 473	32/34	31/35	379/404	6.2	77.95
31	@rickityricksanchez	218.05	442 of 473	30/34	32/35	380/404	6.2	76.74
32	@mammacass505nj	217.79	442 of 473	31/34	30/35	381/404	6.2	76.51
32	@steudo31	217.79	442 of 473	31/34	30/35	381/404	6.2	76.51
34	@bruceismybigdog41	217.76	442 of 473	31/34	30/35	381/404	6.2	76.51
35	@meghanplatt	216.81	441 of 473	30/34	30/35	381/404	6.4	76.16
36	@sausage123	216.19	443 of 473	30/34	33/35	380/404	6.3	78.94
37	@h0pegulle	216.14	439 of 473	31/34	29/35	379/404	6.8	75.88
38	@tester	215.93	440 of 473	31/34	30/35	379/404	6.3	75.08
39	@from_the_dirt	215.63	433 of 473	28/34	27/35	378/404	6.7	78.39
40	@mghhdy	215.57	440 of 473	31/34	30/35	379/404	6.3	74.91
41	@hz58	215.01	439 of 473	28/34	31/35	380/404	6.3	74.38
42	@kangjack	214.06	439 of 473	29/34	31/35	379/404	6.4	73.28
43	@acphantom	213.83	426 of 473	14/34	32/35	380/404	6.0	80.66
44	@paul	212.05	438 of 473	30/34	30/35	378/404	6.5	71.86
45	@wildrose	210.25	436 of 473	27/34	31/35	378/404	6.5	69.87
46	@bluewave2026	207.69	432 of 473	30/34	30/35	372/404	6.4	71.84
47	@jac0731	195.44	423 of 473	26/34	30/35	367/404	7.0	55.62
48	@jacobrobben	187.62	436 of 473	27/34	31/35	378/404	6.6	69.11
49	@wifemento	151.49	282 of 473	28/34	29/35	225/404	10.3	57.92
50	@masonscaggs1	87.31	68 of 473	11/34	13/35	44/404	6.6	69.49
51	@propez1845	41.53	60 of 473	28/34	32/35	0/404	16.5	19.20
52	@pol	19.03	29 of 473	29/34	0/35	0/404	18.2	8.84
53	@dou	18.00	29 of 473	29/34	0/35	0/404	18.4	7.78
54	@dinunzioa12	13.10	9 of 473	9/34	0/35	0/404	18.2	11.05
	Our forecast (not ranked)	217.79	442 of 473	31/34	30/35	381/404	6.2	76.51
	Readers’ average (not ranked)	225.22	446 of 473	32/34	31/35	383/404	5.7	83.01

“Avg. margin miss” is the average distance, in points, between a ballot’s margin and the result in the Toss-up, Tilt and Lean races. “Close races” is the points earned in those races alone.

The game

54 ballots came in between October 28 and the lock at 6:00 pm Eastern on November 3, when the first polls closed. 15 ballots arrived on the last day. Each one picked a winner and a margin in up to 489 Senate, governor and House races.

Ballots entered per day

By the Eastern calendar.

Oct 28Oct 281 ballot

Oct 29Oct 291 ballot

Oct 30Oct 301 ballot

Oct 31Oct 318 ballots

Nov 1Nov 116 ballots

Nov 2Nov 212 ballots

Nov 3Nov 315 ballots

How it was scored

Each race scores 1 point for the right winner, plus up to 1 more for the margin: a full point when it is exact, nothing when it is 10 or more points off.

Races are weighted by how our forecast rated them when picks lock: a Toss-up, Tilt or Lean race counts in full, a Likely race half and a Solid race a fifth.

If two ballots tie on points, the one with the smaller average margin error in the competitive races ranks higher.

The results are the official counts on our results pages, as of November 13. A race is scored once it is called there; a race still being counted is not. The weights are our ratings at the lock, fixed that evening and not changed since. The 17 contests the ballot itself decided (an unopposed candidate, or two from one party) were never picked and are not scored.

16 races not scored yet

AK-AL: ranked-choice count to come
AZ-02: still being counted
CA-23: still being counted
CO-04: still being counted
FL-27: still being counted
Alaska governor: still being counted
LA-05: goes to a runoff on December 12
LA-06: goes to a runoff on December 12
MN-01: still being counted
NC-03: still being counted
NC-05: still being counted
NC-07: still being counted
NC-10: still being counted
Alaska Senate: ranked-choice count to come
TN-04: still being counted
WA-05: still being counted

Leaderboard What readers predicted 2026 results

Usernames and scores are public here, as on the leaderboard. Nothing else about a player is shown or stored. You can delete your entry at any time from the game, in the browser where you entered.