Prediction game · what readers predicted
What our readers predicted
The 54 ballots in the prediction game, added up as they stood when picks locked at 6:00 pm ET on Nov. 3. Ballots could start from our forecast, and readers changed whatever they disagreed with. These are predictions, not results.
Senate
53.7 Democratic seats on the average ballot
89% of ballots gave Democrats the Senate (51 seats, with the independents who caucus with them); 11% gave it to Republicans.
House
237.6 Democratic seats on the average ballot
100% of ballots gave Democrats the House (218 seats); 0% gave it to Republicans.
Governors
27.3 Democratic governors on the average ballot
Senate races, closest among readers first
| Race | Readers pick | Readers’ margin | Our forecast | Picked against our favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Turek 54% | D+0.1 | R+0.8 | 54% |
| South Carolina | Graham 60% | R+1.6 | R+3.8 | 40% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts 61% | R+1.0 | R+3.0 | 39% |
| Maine | Jackson 80% | D+1.2 | D+1.6 | 20% |
| Kansas | Hamilton 81% | D+0.8 | D+1.7 | 19% |
| Alaska | Peltola 87% | D+0.6 | D+0.8 | 13% |
| Florida | Moody 87% | R+5.6 | R+8.5 | 13% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed 89% | D+2.8 | D+2.4 | 11% |
| Montana | Alme 90% | R+13.4 | R+16.6 | 10% |
| Texas | Talarico 91% | D+1.8 | D+1.5 | 9% |
| Mississippi | Hyde-Smith 92% | R+5.9 | R+9.0 | 8% |
| Ohio | Brown 93% | D+1.9 | D+1.7 | 7% |
| North Carolina | Cooper 98% | D+7.6 | D+9.3 | 2% |
| Rhode Island | Reed 98% | D+26.2 | D+30.9 | 2% |
| Oregon | Merkley 98% | D+24.9 | D+29.9 | 2% |
| Arkansas | Cotton 98% | R+10.3 | R+12.4 | 2% |
| Idaho | Risch 98% | R+9.3 | R+9.5 | 2% |
| Kentucky | Barr 98% | R+9.9 | R+13.8 | 2% |
| Louisiana | Letlow 98% | R+11.1 | R+12.3 | 2% |
| Georgia | Ossoff 100% | D+7.7 | D+8.6 | 0% |
| New Hampshire | Pappas 100% | D+5.0 | D+5.7 | 0% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan 100% | D+4.8 | D+3.7 | 0% |
| Illinois | Stratton 100% | D+14.6 | D+13.5 | 0% |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper 100% | D+21.6 | D+20.3 | 0% |
| New Mexico | Luján 100% | D+16.1 | D+18.0 | 0% |
| New Jersey | Booker 100% | D+22.3 | D+24.7 | 0% |
| Virginia | Warner 100% | D+19.6 | D+23.2 | 0% |
| Massachusetts | Markey 100% | D+27.8 | D+29.9 | 0% |
| Delaware | Coons 100% | D+28.2 | D+32.8 | 0% |
| Alabama | Moore 100% | R+15.3 | R+18.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma | Hern 100% | R+19.0 | R+22.4 | 0% |
| South Dakota | Rounds 100% | R+12.3 | R+14.9 | 0% |
| Tennessee | Hagerty 100% | R+20.5 | R+25.4 | 0% |
| West Virginia | Capito 100% | R+26.4 | R+34.5 | 0% |
| Wyoming | Hageman 100% | R+26.9 | R+32.4 | 0% |
Governor races, closest among readers first
| Race | Readers pick | Readers’ margin | Our forecast | Picked against our favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Bottoms 51% | R+0.1 | R+2.0 | 51% |
| Nevada | Lombardo 57% | R+0.7 | R+2.9 | 43% |
| Texas | Abbott 69% | R+2.1 | R+4.6 | 31% |
| Oregon | Kotek 71% | D+0.9 | R+1.4 | 71% |
| Florida | Donalds 75% | R+3.5 | R+6.8 | 25% |
| Kansas | Masterson 80% | R+3.3 | R+3.0 | 20% |
| Vermont | Scott 86% | R+4.1 | R+4.3 | 14% |
| New Hampshire | Ayotte 94% | R+9.7 | R+11.8 | 6% |
| Alabama | Tuberville 94% | R+9.6 | R+12.6 | 6% |
| Iowa | Sand 96% | D+6.3 | D+6.7 | 4% |
| Wisconsin | Crowley 98% | D+2.7 | D+2.8 | 2% |
| Ohio | Acton 98% | D+2.6 | D+2.0 | 2% |
| Alaska | Kreiss-Tomkins 98% | D+17.7 | D+19.9 | 2% |
| New Mexico | Haaland 98% | D+6.8 | D+6.6 | 2% |
| Minnesota | Klobuchar 98% | D+9.3 | D+9.5 | 2% |
| Colorado | Weiser 98% | D+18.1 | D+17.4 | 2% |
| Illinois | Pritzker 98% | D+19.2 | D+21.1 | 2% |
| Connecticut | Lamont 98% | D+16.3 | D+18.0 | 2% |
| Rhode Island | Foulkes 98% | D+13.6 | D+15.8 | 2% |
| Hawaii | Green 98% | D+32.9 | D+38.1 | 2% |
| Massachusetts | Healey 98% | D+22.5 | D+25.2 | 2% |
| Idaho | Little 98% | R+18.8 | R+21.3 | 2% |
| Michigan | Benson 100% | D+7.3 | D+7.3 | 0% |
| Arizona | Hobbs 100% | D+6.5 | D+7.1 | 0% |
| Pennsylvania | Shapiro 100% | D+21.9 | D+23.3 | 0% |
| Maine | Pingree 100% | D+9.8 | D+10.0 | 0% |
| California | Becerra 100% | D+22.3 | D+23.8 | 0% |
| Maryland | Moore 100% | D+27.5 | D+30.0 | 0% |
| New York | Hochul 100% | D+12.7 | D+11.7 | 0% |
| Arkansas | Sanders 100% | R+16.5 | R+18.5 | 0% |
| Oklahoma | Mazzei 100% | R+7.8 | R+8.9 | 0% |
| South Carolina | Wilson 100% | R+11.8 | R+13.5 | 0% |
| South Dakota | Rhoden 100% | R+19.1 | R+22.2 | 0% |
| Tennessee | Blackburn 100% | R+12.6 | R+15.9 | 0% |
| Nebraska | Pillen 100% | R+6.0 | R+7.2 | 0% |
| Wyoming | Barlow 100% | R+24.7 | R+28.6 | 0% |
The House races readers split on most
| Race | Readers pick | Readers’ margin | Our forecast | Picked against our favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX-35 | De La Cruz 54% | D+0.3 | R+0.2 | 46% |
| IA-03 | Nunn 62% | D+0.2 | R+0.6 | 38% |
| PA-01 | Fitzpatrick 63% | R+0.7 | R+2.1 | 37% |
| MO-02 | Wagner 65% | Even | R+0.7 | 35% |
| FL-22 | Askar 67% | R+0.1 | R+0.7 | 33% |
| CO-03 | Hurd 68% | R+0.4 | R+1.0 | 32% |
| ME-02 | Dunlap 71% | D+0.5 | R+0.7 | 71% |
| CO-05 | Crank 74% | R+0.2 | R+0.6 | 26% |
| MN-01 | Finstad 78% | R+0.7 | R+1.4 | 22% |
| AL-02 | Marques 78% | R+1.4 | R+2.3 | 22% |
| SC-01 | Honeycutt 78% | R+1.7 | R+3.0 | 22% |
| NY-01 | LaLota 80% | R+1.3 | R+2.3 | 20% |
| VA-05 | McGuire 81% | R+3.1 | R+4.9 | 19% |
| TX-23 | Herrera 82% | R+2.5 | R+3.7 | 18% |
| CO-04 | Boebert 82% | R+3.6 | R+5.2 | 18% |
| MI-10 | Bouchard 84% | R+2.3 | R+4.2 | 16% |
| FL-07 | Elijah 84% | R+1.9 | R+2.7 | 16% |
| MI-04 | Huizenga 84% | R+1.7 | R+3.3 | 16% |
Every ballot
| Player | Senate (D–R) | House (D–R) | Governors (D–R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| @acphantom | 54–46 | 232–203 | 27–23 |
| @azlawyer04 | 58–42 | 251–184 | 32–18 |
| @bluewave2026 | 52–48 | 249–186 | 29–21 |
| @bruceismybigdog41 | 53–47 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @cheyinka | 58–41 | 259–176 | 31–19 |
| @cmelectionprediction | 52–48 | 256–179 | 27–23 |
| @combatwombat13 | 56–44 | 256–179 | 30–20 |
| @coolhandheel | 53–47 | 245–190 | 28–22 |
| @dinunzioa12 | 53–47 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @dmurphymcgraw14 | 55–45 | 244–191 | 28–22 |
| @donato | 56–44 | 250–185 | 27–23 |
| @dou | 51–49 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @drfrfr | 56–44 | 234–201 | 30–20 |
| @efro121506 | 54–46 | 244–191 | 28–22 |
| @from_the_dirt | 51–49 | 232–203 | 24–26 |
| @gnys | 56–44 | 233–202 | 27–23 |
| @guidoj_ger | 54–46 | 233–202 | 26–24 |
| @h0pegulle | 57–43 | 233–202 | 24–26 |
| @humdrum | 58–42 | 249–186 | 32–18 |
| @hz58 | 50–50 | 234–201 | 26–24 |
| @ics91 | 54–46 | 233–202 | 29–21 |
| @jac0731 | 47–53 | 219–216 | 25–25 |
| @jacobrobben | 49–51 | 231–204 | 26–24 |
| @jeb_bungus | 54–46 | 255–179 | 28–22 |
| @joey07701 | 54–46 | 235–200 | 28–22 |
| @kamikazee333 | 54–46 | 233–202 | 27–23 |
| @kangjack | 52–48 | 233–202 | 26–24 |
| @kmurphy798 | 53–47 | 244–191 | 27–23 |
| @mammacass505nj | 53–47 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @masonscaggs1 | 50–50 | 229–206 | 25–25 |
| @mcbarndt | 56–44 | 233–202 | 27–23 |
| @meghanplatt | 53–47 | 237–198 | 25–25 |
| @mghhdy | 53–47 | 233–202 | 25–25 |
| @mwt87 | 55–44 | 235–200 | 27–23 |
| @nightowl925 | 52–48 | 238–197 | 27–23 |
| @nix666 | 56–43 | 245–190 | 27–23 |
| @ovidarch | 56–44 | 233–202 | 29–21 |
| @paul | 52–48 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @pol | 51–49 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @propez1845 | 50–50 | 232–203 | 28–22 |
| @putinnuri | 56–44 | 245–190 | 30–20 |
| @rduran23 | 56–44 | 234–201 | 29–21 |
| @reddtrain | 52–48 | 251–184 | 30–20 |
| @rickityricksanchez | 54–46 | 234–201 | 27–23 |
| @ringmybell | 56–44 | 233–202 | 28–22 |
| @sausage123 | 55–44 | 232–203 | 30–20 |
| @sonnymarchbanks | 56–44 | 238–197 | 27–23 |
| @steudo31 | 53–47 | 232–203 | 25–25 |
| @tester | 53–47 | 233–202 | 25–25 |
| @tfatf68 | 55–45 | 232–203 | 29–21 |
| @trebach | 55–45 | 246–189 | 29–21 |
| @turquoisepaladin | 53–47 | 233–202 | 27–23 |
| @wifemento | 58–41 | 231–204 | 30–20 |
| @wildrose | 49–51 | 232–203 | 26–24 |