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FORECAST54 DAYS OUT
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Pollster file

YouGov

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
447
Mean absolute error
4.60percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.01
Represented cycles
142004–2025
Current archive
428canonical records
History span
Oct 12, 2004through Oct 28, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
CBS News/YouGov · CES/YouGov · Rose Institute/YouGov · The Economist/YouGov · University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov · YouGov/Cooperative Election Study · YouGov/The Economist
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

447 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 428 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +4

Dem 38% · Rep 34%

Field dates
May 1–May 4, 2026
Sample
1,570 A
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +3

Dem 44% · Rep 41%

Field dates
May 1–May 4, 2026
Sample
1,406 RV
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 39% · Rep 34%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2026
Sample
1,834 A
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 46% · Rep 41%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2026
Sample
1,645 RV
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Talarico +8

Ken Paxton 34% · James Talarico 42%

Field dates
Apr 10–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
1,200 RV
Sponsor / client
University of Texas
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 39% · Rep 33%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
1,703 A
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 45% · Rep 40%

Field dates
Apr 17–Apr 20, 2026
Sample
1,549 RV
Sponsor / client
The Economist
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 447 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20142014_Sen-G_SDSen-G2014-10-20527R+13.0R+20.9D+7.9
20142014_Sen-G_SCSen-G2014-10-201,566R+15.0R+15.5D+0.5
20142014_Sen-G_RISen-G2014-10-20866D+45.0D+41.4D+3.6
20142014_Sen-G_ORSen-G2014-10-201,421D+12.0D+18.9R+7.0
20142014_Sen-G_OKSen-G2014-10-20995R+36.0R+39.5D+3.5
20142014_Sen-G_NMSen-G2014-10-20962D+16.0D+11.1D+4.9
20142014_Sen-G_NJSen-G2014-10-201,868D+12.0D+13.5R+1.5
20142014_Sen-G_NHSen-G2014-10-201,042D+5.0D+3.3D+1.7
20142014_Sen-G_NESen-G2014-10-20681R+29.0R+32.9D+3.9
20142014_Sen-G_NCSen-G2014-10-201,910D+3.0R+1.6D+4.6
20142014_Sen-G_MTSen-G2014-10-20497R+18.0R+17.7R+0.3
20142014_Sen-G_MSSen-G2014-10-20654R+22.0R+22.0D+0.0
20142014_Sen-G_MNSen-G2014-10-202,430D+10.0D+10.3R+0.3
20142014_Sen-G_MISen-G2014-10-202,394D+8.0D+13.3R+5.3
20142014_Sen-G_MESen-G2014-10-201,177R+19.0R+37.0D+18.0
20142014_Sen-G_MASen-G2014-10-202,218D+22.0D+23.9R+1.9
20142014_Sen-G_KYSen-G2014-10-201,502R+6.0R+15.5D+9.5
20142014_Sen-G_ILSen-G2014-10-203,519D+13.0D+10.8D+2.1
20142014_Sen-G_IDSen-G2014-10-20575R+31.0R+30.7R+0.3
20142014_Sen-G_IASen-G2014-10-202,3220R+8.3D+8.3
20142014_Sen-G_GASen-G2014-10-201,774R+3.0R+7.7D+4.7
20142014_Sen-G_DESen-G2014-10-20461D+18.0D+13.6D+4.4
20142014_Sen-G_COSen-G2014-10-201,567D+1.0R+1.9D+2.9
20142014_Sen-G_ARSen-G2014-10-201,546R+5.0R+17.1D+12.1
20142014_Sen-G_AKSen-G2014-10-20561R+4.0R+2.1R+1.9
20142014_Sen-GS_SCSen-G2014-10-201,566R+29.0R+22.1R+6.8
20142014_Sen-GS_OKSen-G2014-10-20995R+34.0R+38.9D+4.9
20142014_Sen-GS_HISen-G2014-10-201,002D+52.0D+42.1D+9.9
20142014_Gov-G_WYGov-G2014-10-20258R+25.0R+33.9D+8.8
20142014_Gov-G_WIGov-G2014-10-203,308R+1.0R+5.7D+4.7
20142014_Gov-G_VTGov-G2014-10-20329D+12.0D+1.3D+10.7
20142014_Gov-G_TXGov-G2014-10-203,987R+20.0R+20.4D+0.4
20142014_Gov-G_TNGov-G2014-10-20974R+28.0R+47.5D+19.5
20142014_Gov-G_SDGov-G2014-10-20527R+26.0R+45.0D+19.0
20142014_Gov-G_SCGov-G2014-10-201,566R+17.0R+14.5R+2.5
20142014_Gov-G_RIGov-G2014-10-20866D+5.0D+4.5D+0.5
20142014_Gov-G_PAGov-G2014-10-203,111D+13.0D+9.9D+3.1
20142014_Gov-G_ORGov-G2014-10-201,421D+6.0D+5.8D+0.2
20142014_Gov-G_OKGov-G2014-10-20995R+24.0R+14.8R+9.2
20142014_Gov-G_OHGov-G2014-10-202,728R+19.0R+30.6D+11.6
20142014_Gov-G_NYGov-G2014-10-205,122D+25.0D+14.0D+11.0
20142014_Gov-G_NVGov-G2014-10-201,314R+25.0R+48.1D+23.1
20142014_Gov-G_NMGov-G2014-10-20962R+12.0R+14.4D+2.5
20142014_Gov-G_NHGov-G2014-10-201,042D+9.0D+5.0D+4.0
20142014_Gov-G_NEGov-G2014-10-20681R+20.0R+17.9R+2.0
20142014_Gov-G_MNGov-G2014-10-202,430D+9.0D+5.6D+3.4
20142014_Gov-G_MIGov-G2014-10-202,394D+1.0R+4.1D+5.1
20142014_Gov-G_MEGov-G2014-10-201,177D+2.0R+4.8D+6.8
20142014_Gov-G_MDGov-G2014-10-201,086D+13.0R+3.8D+16.8
20142014_Gov-G_MAGov-G2014-10-202,218D+4.0R+1.9D+5.9

4 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.