Y2 Analytics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 7
- Mean absolute error
- 5.09percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.87
- Represented cycles
- 22016–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Nov 2, 2016through Oct 20, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2020
7 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
7 shown · 7 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-20 | 700 | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2020-10-20 | 660 | R+7.0 | R+20.5 | D+13.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-20 | 700 | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2020-10-20 | 660 | R+25.0 | R+32.6 | D+7.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_UT | Sen-G | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+40.0 | R+41.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+9.0 | R+18.1 | D+9.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_UT | Gov-G | 2016-11-02 | 500 | R+38.0 | R+38.0 | 0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.