Ward Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 15
- Mean absolute error
- 5.85percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.77
- Represented cycles
- 71998–2014
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 22, 1998through Oct 15, 2014
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014
15 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
15 shown · 15 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-GS_HI | Sen-G | 2014-10-15 | 605 | D+51.0 | D+42.1 | D+8.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_HI-1 | House-G | 2014-10-15 | 354 | 0 | D+3.9 | R+3.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2014-10-15 | 605 | D+12.0 | D+12.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_HI | Sen-G | 2012-10-19 | 786 | D+22.0 | D+25.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_HI-2 | House-G | 2012-10-19 | 410 | D+65.0 | D+61.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_HI-1 | House-G | 2012-10-19 | 376 | D+11.0 | D+9.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_HI-2 | House-G | 2010-10-16 | 192 | D+61.0 | D+46.9 | D+14.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_HI-1 | House-G | 2010-10-16 | 399 | R+3.0 | D+6.5 | R+9.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2010-10-16 | 608 | D+8.0 | D+17.1 | R+9.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_HI | Pres-G | 2004-10-16 | 600 | 0 | D+8.7 | R+8.7 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2002-10-28 | 750 | R+1.0 | R+4.5 | D+3.5 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 2002-10-21 | 750 | R+4.0 | R+4.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_HI | Pres-G | 2000-10-22 | 261 | D+19.0 | D+18.3 | D+0.7 |
| 1998 | 1998_House-G_HI-1 | House-G | 1998-10-22 | 272 | D+15.0 | D+25.2 | R+10.2 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_HI | Gov-G | 1998-10-22 | 480 | R+8.0 | D+1.3 | R+9.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.