Voter/Consumer Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 8
- Mean absolute error
- 4.97percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.23
- Represented cycles
- 52000–2014
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 30, 2000through Oct 19, 2014
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2002 · 2006 · 2010 · 2014
8 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
8 shown · 8 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2014-10-19 | 815 | R+8.0 | R+15.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+4.0 | R+4.8 | D+0.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_WI | Gov-G | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+8.0 | R+5.8 | R+2.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_KY-2 | House-G | 2006-10-30 | 450 | R+14.0 | R+10.8 | R+3.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2006-10-23 | 602 | D+2.0 | D+10.0 | R+8.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2002-10-17 | 600 | D+0.5 | D+4.9 | R+4.4 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-O_LA | Sen-G | 2002-10-16 | 500 | D+28.0 | D+18.8 | D+9.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_House-G_FL-8 | House-G | 2000-10-30 | 400 | R+6.0 | R+1.6 | R+4.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.