Governor
Spanberger +7GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 49% · Winsome Earle-Sears 42%
- Field dates
- Oct 6–Oct 14, 2025
- Sample
- 784 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 5.41percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.73
- Represented cycles
- 62000–2025
- Current archive
- 6canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2000through Oct 14, 2025
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Virginia Commonwealth University
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2008 · 2009 · 2020 · 2021 · 2025
10 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
6 shown · 6 total
Governor
Spanberger +8GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 49% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41%
- Field dates
- Oct 6–Oct 14, 2025
- Sample
- 842 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +9GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 48% · Winsome Earle-Sears 39%
- Field dates
- Aug 18–Aug 28, 2025
- Sample
- 804 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +8.3GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 48.6% · Winsome Earle-Sears 40.3%
- Field dates
- Aug 18–Aug 28, 2025
- Sample
- 764 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +12GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 48% · Winsome Earle-Sears 36%
- Field dates
- Jun 19–Jul 3, 2025
- Sample
- 764 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +10GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 44% · Winsome Earle-Sears 34%
- Field dates
- Dec 18–Jan 15, 2025
- Sample
- 806 A
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-14 | — | D+7.0 | D+15.4 | R+8.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-10-14 | — | R+3.0 | D+6.7 | R+9.7 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-15 | 722 | D+3.0 | R+1.9 | D+4.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2020-10-18 | 709 | D+17.0 | D+12.1 | D+4.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2020-10-18 | 709 | D+12.0 | D+10.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2009 | 2009_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2009-10-23 | 625 | R+18.0 | R+17.4 | R+0.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2008-10-21 | 817 | D+34.0 | D+31.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 817 | D+11.0 | D+6.3 | D+4.7 |
| 2000 | 2000_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2000-10-21 | 596 | R+15.0 | R+4.6 | R+10.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2000-10-21 | 596 | R+14.0 | R+8.1 | R+6.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.