Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
10 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Juliana Stratton 29.4% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 31.6% · Robin Kelly 13.6%
Juliana Stratton 20.7% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32.1% · Robin Kelly 11.4% · Awisi Bustos 2.4% · Christopher Swann 1% · Jonathan Dean 0.6% · Bryan Maxwell 0.5% · Kevin Ryan 0.5%
Juliana Stratton 17.7% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 29.1% · Robin Kelly 22.3% · Awisi Bustos 2.2% · Jonathan Dean 0.2% · Kevin Ryan 0.4% · Sean Brown 0.4%
Darren Bailey 34% · JB Pritzker 54.3%
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | IL · Senate | Sen-G | 2020-10-31 | 1,208 | D+25.0 | D+16.1 | D+8.9 |
| 2020 | IL-6 · House | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+14.2 | D+7.4 | D+6.8 |
| 2020 | IL-3 · House | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+23.3 | D+12.8 | D+10.5 |
| 2020 | IL-17 · House | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+10.6 | D+4.0 | D+6.5 |
| 2020 | IL · President | Pres-G | 2020-10-29 | 1,208 | D+15.9 | D+17.0 | R+1.1 |
| 2018 | IL · Governor | Gov-G | 2018-11-02 | 1,208 | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2006 | PA · Senate | Sen-G | 2006-11-05 | 800 | D+4.0 | D+17.4 | R+13.4 |
| 2004 | IL · Senate | Sen-G | 2004-10-30 | 1,200 | D+46.0 | D+43.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2004 | IL · President | Pres-G | 2004-10-30 | 1,200 | D+10.0 | D+10.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2004 | IL-8 · House | House-G | 2004-10-30 | 400 | R+8.0 | D+3.4 | R+11.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.