Darren Bailey 34% · JB Pritzker 54.3%
- Field dates
- Nov 20–Nov 24, 2025
- Sample
- 1,200 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Victory Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 6.24percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.45
- Represented cycles
- 42004–2020
- Current archive
- 5canonical records
- History span
- Oct 30, 2004through Oct 31, 2020
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2006 · 2018 · 2020
10 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
5 shown · 5 total
Senate · D primary
Krishnamoorthi +2.2Illinois · Senate
Juliana Stratton 29.4% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 31.6% · Robin Kelly 13.6%
- Field dates
- Mar 13–Mar 15, 2026
- Sample
- 806 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate · D primary
Krishnamoorthi +11.4Illinois · Senate
Juliana Stratton 20.7% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 32.1% · Robin Kelly 11.4% · Awisi Bustos 2.4% · Christopher Swann 1% · Jonathan Dean 0.6% · Bryan Maxwell 0.5% · Kevin Ryan 0.5%
- Field dates
- Jan 21–Jan 25, 2026
- Sample
- 806 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate · D primary
Krishnamoorthi +6.8Illinois · Senate
Juliana Stratton 17.7% · Raja Krishnamoorthi 29.1% · Robin Kelly 22.3% · Awisi Bustos 2.2% · Jonathan Dean 0.2% · Kevin Ryan 0.4% · Sean Brown 0.4%
- Field dates
- Nov 20–Nov 24, 2025
- Sample
- Not reported LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Pritzker +20Illinois · Governor
JB Pritzker 54% · Darren Bailey 34%
- Field dates
- Nov 20–Nov 24, 2025
- Sample
- 1,208 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2020-10-31 | 1,208 | D+25.0 | D+16.1 | D+8.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_IL-6 | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+14.2 | D+7.4 | D+6.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_IL-3 | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+23.3 | D+12.8 | D+10.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_IL-17 | House-G | 2020-10-31 | 600 | D+10.6 | D+4.0 | D+6.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2020-10-29 | 1,208 | D+15.9 | D+17.0 | R+1.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2018-11-02 | 1,208 | D+16.0 | D+15.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2006-11-05 | 800 | D+4.0 | D+17.4 | R+13.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2004-10-30 | 1,200 | D+46.0 | D+43.0 | D+3.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2004-10-30 | 1,200 | D+10.0 | D+10.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_IL-8 | House-G | 2004-10-30 | 400 | R+8.0 | D+3.4 | R+11.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.