Senate
Paxton +1Texas · Senate
Ken Paxton 38% · James Talarico 37%
- Field dates
- Sep 17–Sep 24, 2025
- Sample
- 1,032 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 5
- Mean absolute error
- 4.65percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.41
- Represented cycles
- 32018–2022
- Current archive
- 15canonical records
- History span
- Oct 22, 2018through Oct 21, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- University of Texas at Tyler · UT Tyler
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2018 · 2020 · 2022
5 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
3 shown · 15 total
Senate
Cornyn +6Texas · Senate
John Cornyn 41% · James Talarico 35%
- Field dates
- Sep 17–Sep 24, 2025
- Sample
- 1,032 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate · D primary
Allred +12Texas · Senate
Colin Allred 42% · James Talarico 30%
- Field dates
- Sep 17–Sep 24, 2025
- Sample
- 377 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
5 shown · 5 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 2022-10-21 | 973 | R+6.0 | R+10.9 | D+4.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2020-10-17 | 925 | R+8.0 | R+9.6 | D+1.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_TX | Pres-G | 2020-10-17 | 925 | D+3.0 | R+5.6 | D+8.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2018-10-22 | 905 | R+3.6 | R+2.6 | R+1.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 2018-10-22 | 1,033 | R+20.4 | R+13.3 | R+7.1 |
3 further rows are held in this pollster’s history shard as within-party or nonpartisan contests (Prim). Those carry no D/R orientation, so they are excluded from the error, bias and coverage figures above and from the table.
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.