University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 5.56percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.41
- Represented cycles
- 32016–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 21, 2016through Oct 27, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2018 · 2020
10 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 5,423 | D+11.5 | D+4.5 | D+7.1 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-10-27 | 5,413 | D+8.0 | D+3.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-13 | 5,488 | D+12.3 | D+4.5 | D+7.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-10-13 | 5,483 | D+7.7 | D+3.0 | D+4.6 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-31 | 2,521 | D+15.0 | D+8.8 | D+6.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-24 | 2,350 | D+17.0 | D+8.8 | D+8.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-10-17 | 2,284 | D+13.0 | D+8.8 | D+4.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-11-04 | 2,972 | R+3.2 | D+2.1 | R+5.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-28 | 3,145 | R+3.6 | D+2.1 | R+5.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-10-21 | 3,104 | D+0.9 | D+2.1 | R+1.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.