University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 4.76percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.16
- Represented cycles
- 52004–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 2004through Oct 24, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
10 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_FL-4 | House-G | 2022-10-24 | 413 | R+12.0 | R+20.9 | D+8.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2022-10-21 | 622 | R+11.0 | R+16.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2022-10-21 | 622 | R+14.0 | R+19.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-14 | 863 | D+1.0 | R+3.4 | D+4.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-25 | 1,051 | D+1.0 | R+0.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-25 | 1,051 | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2016-10-23 | 836 | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | D+1.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-10-23 | 802.5 | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | D+4.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2004-10-13 | 614 | D+3.0 | R+1.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2004-10-13 | 614 | D+1.0 | R+5.0 | D+6.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.