University of Minnesota Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 8
- Mean absolute error
- 5.75percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.51
- Represented cycles
- 42004–2010
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2004through Oct 23, 2010
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010
8 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
8 shown · 8 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MN | Gov-G | 2010-10-23 | 751 | D+12.0 | D+0.4 | D+11.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2008-10-26 | 418 | D+4.0 | D+0.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2008-10-26 | 451 | D+19.0 | D+10.3 | D+8.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_MN-6 | House-G | 2008-10-22 | 430 | D+2.0 | R+3.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2006-10-26 | 663 | D+22.0 | D+20.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MN | Gov-G | 2006-10-26 | 663 | D+6.0 | R+1.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2004-10-24 | 690 | R+3.0 | D+3.5 | R+6.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2004-10-17 | 623 | R+1.0 | D+0.4 | R+1.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.