University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 21
- Mean absolute error
- 3.46percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.97
- Represented cycles
- 62012–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Nov 2, 2012through Nov 23, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2012 · 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2020 · 2022
21 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
21 shown · 21 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2022-11-23 | 1,300 | D+5.0 | D+2.8 | D+2.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_MA | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 1,000 | D+27.0 | D+29.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2022-10-20 | 600 | D+10.0 | D+9.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2022-10-20 | 600 | R+16.0 | R+15.6 | R+0.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2020-10-23 | 873 | R+5.0 | R+9.6 | D+4.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2020-10-23 | 911 | D+4.0 | R+1.8 | D+5.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_TX | Pres-G | 2020-10-23 | 873 | R+1.0 | R+5.6 | D+4.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2020-10-23 | 911 | 0 | R+1.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2020-10-23 | 911 | D+12.0 | D+4.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2020-10-21 | 757 | D+19.0 | D+15.7 | D+3.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2020-10-21 | 757 | D+10.0 | D+7.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2020-10-21 | 757 | R+23.0 | R+31.8 | D+8.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2016-10-31 | 695 | D+1.0 | D+0.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2016-10-31 | 695 | R+0.5 | D+0.4 | R+0.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2016-10-31 | 695 | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | R+1.7 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_MA | Gov-G | 2014-10-23 | 601 | R+4.0 | R+1.9 | R+2.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2014-10-18 | 643 | D+3.0 | D+3.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2014-10-18 | 643 | D+4.0 | D+5.0 | R+1.0 |
| 2013 | 2013_Sen-GS_MA | Sen-G | 2013-06-17 | 312 | D+20.0 | D+10.2 | D+9.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MA | Sen-G | 2012-11-02 | 800 | R+1.0 | D+7.5 | R+8.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MA | Pres-G | 2012-11-02 | 800 | D+20.0 | D+23.2 | R+3.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.