University of Arkansas Department of Political Science
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 9
- Mean absolute error
- 4.95percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.61
- Represented cycles
- 62004–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 2004through Oct 22, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2004 · 2010 · 2014 · 2016 · 2020 · 2022
9 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
9 shown · 9 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2022-10-22 | 557 | R+28.8 | R+34.6 | D+5.8 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 557 | R+19.1 | R+27.8 | D+8.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2020-10-15 | 591 | R+33.0 | R+27.6 | R+5.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2016-10-22 | 585 | R+17.8 | R+23.6 | D+5.8 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2016-10-22 | 585 | R+19.8 | R+26.9 | D+7.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2014-10-24 | 568 | R+13.0 | R+17.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2014-10-24 | 568 | R+11.0 | R+13.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2010-10-14 | 566 | R+19.0 | R+21.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2004-10-13 | 758 | R+7.0 | R+9.8 | D+2.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.