Race
Ossoff +8.9Georgia · Senate
Don't know 6.1% · Someone else 10% · Brad Raffensperger 37.5% · Jon Ossoff 46.4%
- Field dates
- Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
- Sample
- 1,426 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Pollster file
Trafalgar Group
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 113
- Mean absolute error
- 4.04percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+2.44
- Represented cycles
- 92016–2025
- Current archive
- 8canonical records
- History span
- Oct 25, 2016through Nov 2, 2025
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- The Trafalgar Group · Trafalgar Group (R)
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025
113 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
8 shown · 8 total
Race
Ossoff +4.7Georgia · Senate
Don't know 6.5% · Someone else 3.3% · Mike Collins 42.8% · Jon Ossoff 47.5%
- Field dates
- Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
- Sample
- 1,426 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Race
Ossoff +11.8Georgia · Senate
Don't know 7.8% · Someone else 7.5% · Marjorie Taylor Greene 36.5% · Jon Ossoff 48.3%
- Field dates
- Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
- Sample
- 1,426 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Governor
Spanberger +6.5GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 49.8% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43.3%
- Field dates
- Nov 1–Nov 2, 2025
- Sample
- 1,057
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +2.6GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 47.7% · Winsome Earle-Sears 45.1%
- Field dates
- Oct 8–Oct 10, 2025
- Sample
- 1,066 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +5.2GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 47.1% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41.9% · Donna Charles 1.6%
- Field dates
- Sep 25–Oct 1, 2025
- Sample
- 1,034 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Approval
Approve +9.9Presidential approval · Approval
Approve 54.4% · Disapprove 44.5%
- Field dates
- Jun 18–Jun 20, 2025
- Sample
- 1,085 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Senate
Ossoff +4.7Georgia · Senate
Jon Ossoff 47.5% · Mike Collins 42.8%
- Field dates
- Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
- Sample
- 1,426 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- Republican-sponsored
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
13 shown · 113 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2017_House-GSR_GA-6 | House-G | 2017-06-18 | 1,100 | R+1.9 | R+3.6 | D+1.7 |
| 2017 | 2017_House-GSR_GA-6 | House-G | 2017-06-12 | 1,100 | D+2.8 | R+3.6 | D+6.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-GR_LA | Sen-G | 2016-12-06 | 2,500 | R+16.1 | R+21.3 | D+5.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2016-11-06 | 1,200 | R+1.7 | R+0.2 | R+1.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2016-11-06 | 1,250 | R+6.5 | R+5.1 | R+1.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-11-06 | 1,100 | R+3.6 | R+1.2 | R+2.4 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_UT | Pres-G | 2016-11-04 | 1,350 | R+10.4 | R+18.1 | D+7.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2016-11-04 | 1,300 | R+1.9 | R+0.7 | R+1.2 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2016-11-03 | 1,100 | R+4.6 | D+2.5 | R+7.1 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 1,150 | D+0.4 | D+4.9 | R+4.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2016-10-30 | 1,150 | R+5.0 | R+3.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-10-29 | 1,150 | R+3.9 | R+1.2 | R+2.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2016-10-25 | 1,150 | R+4.4 | R+8.1 | D+3.7 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.