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Pollster file

Trafalgar Group

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
113
Mean absolute error
4.04percentage points
Historical bias
R+2.44
Represented cycles
92016–2025
Current archive
8canonical records
History span
Oct 25, 2016through Nov 2, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
The Trafalgar Group · Trafalgar Group (R)
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2018 · 2019 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

113 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

8 shown · 8 total

Ossoff +8.9

Don't know 6.1% · Someone else 10% · Brad Raffensperger 37.5% · Jon Ossoff 46.4%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Ossoff +4.7

Don't know 6.5% · Someone else 3.3% · Mike Collins 42.8% · Jon Ossoff 47.5%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Ossoff +11.8

Don't know 7.8% · Someone else 7.5% · Marjorie Taylor Greene 36.5% · Jon Ossoff 48.3%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +6.5

Abigail Spanberger 49.8% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43.3%

Field dates
Nov 1–Nov 2, 2025
Sample
1,057
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +2.6

Abigail Spanberger 47.7% · Winsome Earle-Sears 45.1%

Field dates
Oct 8–Oct 10, 2025
Sample
1,066 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +5.2

Abigail Spanberger 47.1% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41.9% · Donna Charles 1.6%

Field dates
Sep 25–Oct 1, 2025
Sample
1,034 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +9.9

Approve 54.4% · Disapprove 44.5%

Field dates
Jun 18–Jun 20, 2025
Sample
1,085 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Ossoff +4.7

Jon Ossoff 47.5% · Mike Collins 42.8%

Field dates
Apr 24–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
1,426 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
Republican-sponsored
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 113 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-11-02—D+7.0D+15.4R+8.4
2025VA · Attorney generalAG-G2025-11-02—0D+6.7R+6.7
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-10-15—D+2.0D+15.4R+13.4
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+1.0R+0.9D+1.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—R+1.0R+1.7D+0.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—R+1.0R+1.4D+0.4
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—R+2.0R+5.5D+3.5
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—0R+3.1D+3.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-28—R+3.0R+3.2D+0.2
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-26—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-26—R+2.0R+5.5D+3.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-18—0R+0.9D+0.9
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-18—R+2.0R+1.4R+0.6
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-17—R+3.0R+1.7R+1.3
20222022_Sen-GR_GASen-G2022-12-041,099D+3.7D+2.8D+0.9
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-11-061,089R+4.9D+0.8R+5.7
20222022_Sen-G_AZSen-G2022-11-061,094R+1.5D+4.9R+6.4
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-11-061,089R+2.5R+1.5R+1.0
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-11-061,097R+0.3D+10.5R+10.8
20222022_Gov-G_AZGov-G2022-11-061,094R+3.6D+0.7R+4.3
20222022_Sen-G_NCSen-G2022-11-051,098R+6.4R+3.2R+3.2
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-11-051,103R+3.2D+1.0R+4.2
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-11-051,099R+5.7R+2.7R+3.0
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-11-051,103R+8.9R+7.5R+1.4
20222022_Sen-G_OHSen-G2022-11-041,123R+10.4R+6.1R+4.3
20222022_Gov-G_OHGov-G2022-11-041,123R+24.5R+25.0D+0.5
20222022_Sen-G_WISen-G2022-11-031,095R+2.7R+1.0R+1.7
20222022_Gov-G_WIGov-G2022-11-031,095R+1.6D+3.4R+5.0
20222022_Sen-G_PASen-G2022-11-021,097R+2.2D+4.9R+7.1
20222022_Gov-G_PAGov-G2022-11-021,097D+4.3D+14.8R+10.5
20222022_Sen-G_NHSen-G2022-10-311,241R+1.3D+9.1R+10.4
20222022_Sen-G_MOSen-G2022-10-311,079R+11.0R+13.3D+2.3
20222022_Sen-G_COSen-G2022-10-311,084D+1.5D+14.6R+13.1
20222022_Gov-G_COGov-G2022-10-311,084D+7.1D+19.4R+12.3
20222022_Sen-G_NYSen-G2022-10-291,198D+10.6D+14.0R+3.4
20222022_Gov-G_NYGov-G2022-10-291,198R+0.8D+6.4R+7.2
20222022_Sen-G_WASen-G2022-10-271,207D+1.2D+14.6R+13.3
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-261,089R+5.8R+2.7R+3.1
20222022_Gov-G_COGov-G2022-10-261,174D+7.7D+19.4R+11.7
20222022_Sen-G_NVSen-G2022-10-241,100R+4.2D+0.8R+5.0
20222022_Gov-G_NVGov-G2022-10-241,100R+6.8R+1.5R+5.3
20222022_Sen-G_GASen-G2022-10-221,076R+2.4D+1.0R+3.4
20222022_Gov-G_GAGov-G2022-10-221,076R+6.9R+7.5D+0.6
20222022_Gov-G_ORGov-G2022-10-201,161R+1.3D+3.4R+4.7
20222022_Gov-G_NMGov-G2022-10-201,077R+1.1D+6.4R+7.5
20222022_Gov-G_MIGov-G2022-10-201,079D+0.5D+10.5R+10.0
20222022_Sen-G_NCSen-G2022-10-181,081R+4.2R+3.2R+1.0
20222022_Gov-G_MNGov-G2022-10-181,091R+0.5D+7.7R+8.2
20212021_Gov-G_VAGov-G2021-10-301,081R+2.3R+1.9R+0.4
20212021_Gov-G_NJGov-G2021-10-301,085D+4.2D+3.2D+1.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.