TCJ Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 124
- Mean absolute error
- 6.29percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+5.09
- Represented cycles
- 22010–2012
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 2010through Nov 5, 2012
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2012
124 eligible historical polls across 2 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 124 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | D+1.0 | D+6.7 | R+5.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-10-20 | 1,000 | R+3.1 | D+6.8 | R+9.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-10-20 | 1,500 | R+4.4 | D+3.9 | R+8.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-20 | 1,000 | R+2.7 | D+3.0 | R+5.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | R+14.0 | R+4.8 | R+9.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | R+2.0 | D+4.7 | R+6.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | R+6.0 | D+5.9 | R+11.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | R+12.0 | R+11.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | R+1.6 | R+3.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_WV | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | 0 | D+10.1 | R+10.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_DE | Sen-G | 2010-10-31 | 1,000 | D+5.0 | D+16.6 | R+11.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+6.0 | R+2.0 | R+4.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | D+5.0 | D+11.9 | R+6.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | D+1.6 | R+4.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+2.0 | D+10.0 | R+12.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_VA-5 | House-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+7.0 | R+3.8 | R+3.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_SD-1 | House-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+4.0 | R+2.2 | R+1.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MS-4 | House-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+1.0 | R+5.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_TX | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+11.0 | R+12.7 | D+1.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+9.0 | R+9.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | R+2.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+20.0 | R+11.9 | R+8.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MA | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | 0 | D+6.4 | R+6.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CT | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | D+0.6 | R+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | D+4.0 | D+12.9 | R+8.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2010-10-29 | 1,000 | R+8.0 | R+11.9 | D+3.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_WA | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | 0 | D+4.7 | R+4.7 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+6.0 | R+2.0 | R+4.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | D+5.9 | R+10.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+4.0 | R+1.6 | R+2.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | D+1.6 | R+6.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+4.0 | D+10.0 | R+14.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+21.0 | R+21.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_WV | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+6.0 | D+10.1 | R+16.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_DE | Sen-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | D+6.0 | D+16.6 | R+10.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_PA | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+10.0 | R+9.0 | R+1.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OR | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+2.0 | D+1.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_OH | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | R+2.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MN | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | D+4.0 | D+0.4 | D+3.6 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+7.0 | D+0.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | R+4.0 | R+1.1 | R+2.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_CA | Gov-G | 2010-10-24 | 1,000 | D+4.0 | D+12.9 | R+8.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | R+2.0 | R+3.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | R+7.0 | D+5.9 | R+12.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | R+1.6 | R+1.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | D+3.0 | D+11.9 | R+8.9 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_CA | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | D+10.0 | R+13.0 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_WV | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | R+5.0 | D+10.1 | R+15.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-GS_DE | Sen-G | 2010-10-20 | 1,000 | D+7.0 | D+16.6 | R+9.6 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.