TCJ Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 124
- Mean absolute error
- 6.29percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+5.09
- Represented cycles
- 22010–2012
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 13, 2010through Nov 5, 2012
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2012
124 eligible historical polls across 2 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 124 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-11-05 | 1,500 | R+4.3 | D+3.9 | R+8.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+5.1 | R+1.2 | R+3.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | D+1.7 | D+5.4 | R+3.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+3.4 | D+3.0 | R+6.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | D+4.1 | D+6.7 | R+2.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+0.3 | D+5.6 | R+5.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | D+2.2 | D+7.7 | R+5.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+2.0 | D+5.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+4.6 | D+0.9 | R+5.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-11-04 | 1,000 | R+2.6 | D+5.4 | R+8.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+1.9 | D+5.5 | R+7.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+2.4 | D+5.9 | R+8.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+1.3 | D+6.0 | R+4.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NE | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+12.8 | R+15.6 | D+2.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+0.9 | D+3.7 | R+4.6 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+2.4 | D+15.7 | R+13.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MA | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+1.8 | D+7.5 | R+5.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+4.3 | D+11.8 | R+7.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | D+3.9 | R+6.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+2.7 | D+3.0 | R+5.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NE | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+22.0 | R+21.9 | R+0.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MT | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+9.4 | R+13.7 | D+4.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | R+12.3 | R+9.4 | R+2.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MA | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+13.4 | D+23.2 | R+9.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CT | Pres-G | 2012-11-03 | 1,000 | D+9.3 | D+17.3 | R+8.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 1,500 | R+3.0 | D+3.9 | R+6.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NM | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 1,000 | D+5.0 | D+10.2 | R+5.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 1,000 | D+2.7 | D+9.5 | R+6.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 1,000 | R+2.7 | D+5.8 | R+8.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 1,000 | R+5.8 | D+0.9 | R+6.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2012-10-31 | 1,000 | R+3.1 | D+5.5 | R+8.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2012-10-31 | 1,000 | D+1.6 | D+6.0 | R+4.4 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-10-31 | 1,000 | R+3.0 | D+6.8 | R+9.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-31 | 1,000 | R+2.3 | D+3.0 | R+5.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,000 | R+2.1 | R+1.2 | R+0.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,500 | R+3.1 | D+3.9 | R+7.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,000 | D+1.7 | D+12.2 | R+10.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,000 | D+2.5 | D+6.7 | R+4.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,000 | D+3.5 | D+7.7 | R+4.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_CO | Pres-G | 2012-10-30 | 1,000 | R+4.4 | D+5.4 | R+9.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2012-10-27 | 1,000 | R+2.4 | D+5.5 | R+8.0 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2012-10-27 | 1,000 | D+3.9 | D+6.0 | R+2.1 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2012-10-27 | 1,000 | R+1.9 | D+6.8 | R+8.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2012-10-27 | 1,500 | R+4.9 | D+3.9 | R+8.8 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2012-10-27 | 1,000 | R+3.7 | D+3.0 | R+6.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | R+1.3 | D+5.9 | R+7.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_PA | Sen-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | R+1.4 | D+9.1 | R+10.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | R+5.5 | R+1.2 | R+4.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | R+3.3 | D+3.9 | R+7.2 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2012-10-24 | 1,000 | D+0.9 | D+5.4 | R+4.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.