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Pollster file

SurveyMonkey

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls: 255
Mean absolute error: 6.48percentage points
Historical bias: D+4.93
Represented cycles: 42016–2020
Current archive: 8canonical records
History span: Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2020

Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases: No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type: Single canonical organization
Cycles represented: 2016 · 2017 · 2019 · 2020

255 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

8 shown · 8 total

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +28

Approve 36% · Disapprove 64%

Field dates: Aug 20–Sep 1, 2026
Sample: 7,105 A
Sponsor / client: Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +26

Approve 37% · Disapprove 63%

Field dates: Mar 30–Apr 13, 2026
Sample: 32,433 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +22

Approve 39% · Disapprove 61%

Field dates: Jan 27–Feb 6, 2026
Sample: 21,995 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +16

Approve 42% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates: Nov 20–Dec 8, 2025
Sample: 20,252 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +12

Approve 43% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates: Sep 8–Sep 15, 2025
Sample: 20,807 A
Sponsor / client: The 19th
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +14

Approve 43% · Disapprove 57%

Field dates: Aug 13–Sep 1, 2025
Sample: 30,196 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +10

Approve 45% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates: May 30–Jun 10, 2025
Sample: 19,410 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

Approval

Presidential approval · Approval

Disapprove +10

Approve 45% · Disapprove 55%

Field dates: Apr 11–Apr 20, 2025
Sample: 19,682 A
Sponsor / client: NBC News
Partisan sponsorship: No partisan sponsorship flag

See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →

Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 255 total

Cycle	Race	Type	Field end	Sample	Poll	Result	Error
2020	2020_Pres-G_AR	Pres-G	2020-10-27	1,309	R+23.0	R+27.6	D+4.6
2020	2020_Pres-G_AL	Pres-G	2020-10-27	1,808	R+26.0	R+25.5	R+0.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_AK	Pres-G	2020-10-27	634	R+9.0	R+10.1	D+1.1
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-26	29,809	D+4.0	D+4.5	R+0.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-23	27,039	D+6.0	D+4.5	D+1.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-20	32,217	D+6.0	D+4.5	D+1.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-17	21,339	D+7.0	D+4.5	D+2.5
2020	2020_Pres-G_US	Pres-G	2020-10-14	19,668	D+8.0	D+4.5	D+3.5
2019	2019_Gov-G_MS	Gov-G	2019-10-15	1,002	R+7.0	R+5.1	R+1.9
2017	2017_Sen-GS_AL	Sen-G	2017-12-06	2,131	D+5.0	D+1.6	D+3.4
2016	2016_Sen-O_LA	Sen-G	2016-11-04	982	R+8.0	R+7.5	R+0.5
2016	2016_Sen-G_WI	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,246	R+1.0	R+3.4	D+2.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_WA	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,451	D+22.0	D+18.0	D+4.0
2016	2016_Sen-G_VT	Sen-G	2016-11-04	454	D+51.0	D+28.3	D+22.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_UT	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,479	R+24.0	R+41.1	D+17.1
2016	2016_Sen-G_SD	Sen-G	2016-11-04	459	R+34.0	R+43.7	D+9.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_SC	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,698	R+21.0	R+23.7	D+2.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_PA	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,845	D+4.0	R+1.4	D+5.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_OR	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,595	D+31.0	D+23.3	D+7.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_OK	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,271	R+24.0	R+43.2	D+19.2
2016	2016_Sen-G_OH	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,860	R+18.0	R+20.9	D+2.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_NY	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,208	D+46.0	D+42.6	D+3.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_NV	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,207	D+5.0	D+2.5	D+2.5
2016	2016_Sen-G_NH	Sen-G	2016-11-04	696	D+9.0	D+0.1	D+8.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_ND	Sen-G	2016-11-04	313	R+51.0	R+61.6	D+10.6
2016	2016_Sen-G_NC	Sen-G	2016-11-04	3,126	D+4.0	R+5.7	D+9.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_MO	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,368	D+7.0	R+2.8	D+9.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_MD	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,216	D+31.0	D+25.2	D+5.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_KY	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,315	R+4.0	R+14.6	D+10.6
2016	2016_Sen-G_KS	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,311	R+22.0	R+29.9	D+7.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_IN	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,700	R+11.0	R+9.7	R+1.3
2016	2016_Sen-G_IL	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,823	D+17.0	D+15.1	D+1.9
2016	2016_Sen-G_ID	Sen-G	2016-11-04	612	R+19.0	R+38.4	D+19.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_IA	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,781	R+18.0	R+24.5	D+6.5
2016	2016_Sen-G_HI	Sen-G	2016-11-04	426	D+44.0	D+51.4	R+7.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_GA	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,419	R+6.0	R+13.8	D+7.8
2016	2016_Sen-G_FL	Sen-G	2016-11-04	4,092	D+1.0	R+7.7	D+8.7
2016	2016_Sen-G_CT	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,387	D+29.0	D+28.6	D+0.4
2016	2016_Sen-G_CO	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,777	D+7.0	D+5.7	D+1.3
2016	2016_Sen-G_AZ	Sen-G	2016-11-04	2,609	R+5.0	R+13.0	D+8.0
2016	2016_Sen-G_AR	Sen-G	2016-11-04	930	R+15.0	R+23.6	D+8.6
2016	2016_Sen-G_AL	Sen-G	2016-11-04	1,131	R+19.0	R+28.1	D+9.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_WY	Pres-G	2016-11-04	213	R+39.0	R+47.6	D+8.6
2016	2016_Pres-G_WV	Pres-G	2016-11-04	472	R+27.0	R+42.1	D+15.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_WI	Pres-G	2016-11-04	2,246	D+2.0	R+0.8	D+2.8
2016	2016_Pres-G_WA	Pres-G	2016-11-04	1,451	D+18.0	D+16.2	D+1.8
2016	2016_Pres-G_VT	Pres-G	2016-11-04	454	D+36.0	D+26.6	D+9.4
2016	2016_Pres-G_VA	Pres-G	2016-11-04	2,183	D+8.0	D+5.4	D+2.6
2016	2016_Pres-G_UT	Pres-G	2016-11-04	1,479	R+3.0	R+18.1	D+15.1
2016	2016_Pres-G_TX	Pres-G	2016-11-04	3,009	R+3.0	R+9.0	D+6.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.