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Pollster file

SurveyMonkey

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
255
Mean absolute error
6.48percentage points
Historical bias
D+4.93
Represented cycles
42016–2020
Current archive
8canonical records
History span
Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2020
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2017 · 2019 · 2020

255 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

8 shown · 8 total

Disapprove +26

Approve 37% · Disapprove 63%

Field dates
Mar 30–Apr 13, 2026
Sample
32,433 A
Sponsor / client
NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +22

Approve 39% · Disapprove 61%

Field dates
Jan 27–Feb 6, 2026
Sample
21,995 A
Sponsor / client
NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +16

Approve 42% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates
Nov 20–Dec 8, 2025
Sample
20,252 A
Sponsor / client
NBC News Decision Desk
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 255 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-11-0128,240D+6.0D+4.5D+1.5
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2941,768D+6.0D+4.5D+1.5
20202020_Pres-G_WYPres-G2020-10-27367R+33.0R+43.7D+10.7
20202020_Pres-G_WVPres-G2020-10-27816R+35.0R+38.9D+3.9
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-272,814D+10.0D+0.6D+9.4
20202020_Pres-G_WAPres-G2020-10-274,142D+27.0D+19.3D+7.7
20202020_Pres-G_VTPres-G2020-10-27906D+45.0D+35.6D+9.4
20202020_Pres-G_VAPres-G2020-10-274,550D+16.0D+10.2D+5.8
20202020_Pres-G_UTPres-G2020-10-271,586R+12.0R+20.5D+8.5
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-279,226R+4.0R+5.6D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_TNPres-G2020-10-273,342R+9.0R+23.2D+14.2
20202020_Pres-G_SDPres-G2020-10-27606R+27.0R+26.2R+0.8
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-272,485R+14.0R+11.7R+2.3
20202020_Pres-G_RIPres-G2020-10-27566D+26.0D+20.9D+5.1
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-276,045D+5.0D+1.2D+3.8
20202020_Pres-G_ORPres-G2020-10-273,543D+20.0D+16.2D+3.8
20202020_Pres-G_OKPres-G2020-10-271,902R+30.0R+33.1D+3.1
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-276,025R+4.0R+8.0D+4.0
20202020_Pres-G_NYPres-G2020-10-276,548D+28.0D+23.1D+4.9
20202020_Pres-G_NVPres-G2020-10-272,3660D+2.4R+2.4
20202020_Pres-G_NMPres-G2020-10-271,481D+14.0D+10.8D+3.2
20202020_Pres-G_NJPres-G2020-10-273,870D+21.0D+15.9D+5.1
20202020_Pres-G_NHPres-G2020-10-271,013D+9.0D+7.4D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_NEPres-G2020-10-271,742R+13.0R+19.1D+6.2
20202020_Pres-G_NDPres-G2020-10-27402R+20.0R+33.5D+13.5
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-275,363D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_MTPres-G2020-10-271,021R+6.0R+16.4D+10.4
20202020_Pres-G_MSPres-G2020-10-271,461R+24.0R+16.6R+7.5
20202020_Pres-G_MOPres-G2020-10-272,926R+10.0R+15.4D+5.4
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-273,031D+15.0D+7.1D+7.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-274,549D+6.0D+2.8D+3.2
20202020_Pres-G_MEPres-G2020-10-271,274D+14.0D+9.1D+4.9
20202020_Pres-G_MDPres-G2020-10-273,216D+35.0D+33.4D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_MAPres-G2020-10-273,653D+40.0D+33.6D+6.4
20202020_Pres-G_LAPres-G2020-10-271,556R+26.0R+18.6R+7.4
20202020_Pres-G_KYPres-G2020-10-272,009R+19.0R+25.9D+6.9
20202020_Pres-G_KSPres-G2020-10-272,321R+11.0R+14.7D+3.6
20202020_Pres-G_INPres-G2020-10-272,729R+10.0R+16.1D+6.1
20202020_Pres-G_ILPres-G2020-10-275,643D+18.0D+17.0D+1.0
20202020_Pres-G_IDPres-G2020-10-27909R+18.0R+30.8D+12.8
20202020_Pres-G_IAPres-G2020-10-271,489R+3.0R+8.2D+5.2
20202020_Pres-G_HIPres-G2020-10-27688D+36.0D+29.5D+6.5
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-273,962D+2.0D+0.2D+1.8
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-278,7920R+3.4D+3.4
20202020_Pres-G_DEPres-G2020-10-27656D+22.0D+19.0D+3.0
20202020_Pres-G_DCPres-G2020-10-27495D+89.0D+87.5D+1.4
20202020_Pres-G_CTPres-G2020-10-272,031D+22.0D+20.1D+1.9
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-272,991D+11.0D+13.5R+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_CAPres-G2020-10-2712,370D+26.0D+29.2R+3.2
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-274,278D+6.0D+0.3D+5.7

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.