Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
9 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
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Don't know 6% · Someone else 1% · Lynn Chapman 7% · David Flippo 45% · Teresa Benitez-Thompson 42%
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| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MT | Sen-G | 2020-10-18 | 500 | R+1.0 | R+10.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MT | Pres-G | 2020-10-18 | 500 | R+8.0 | R+16.4 | D+8.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_NM-2 | House-G | 2020-10-18 | 406 | D+1.0 | R+7.5 | D+8.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_MT-1 | House-G | 2020-10-18 | 500 | 0 | R+12.8 | D+12.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_MT | Gov-G | 2020-10-18 | 500 | R+7.0 | R+12.9 | D+5.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_CO | Sen-G | 2014-10-23 | 760 | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_CO | Gov-G | 2014-10-23 | 760 | D+3.0 | D+3.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_WA | Pres-G | 2012-10-19 | 500 | D+13.0 | D+14.9 | R+1.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Gov-G_WA | Gov-G | 2012-10-19 | 500 | 0 | D+3.1 | R+3.1 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.