SSRS
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 30
- Mean absolute error
- 5.37percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+3.12
- Represented cycles
- 61998–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 23, 1998through Nov 27, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2004 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022
30 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
30 shown · 30 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-GR_GA | Sen-G | 2022-11-27 | 1,184 | D+4.0 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_House-G_US | House-G | 2022-10-29 | 992 | R+4.0 | R+2.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2020-10-27 | 901 | D+3.0 | R+1.8 | D+4.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2020-10-27 | 907 | D+12.0 | D+1.7 | D+10.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-27 | 865 | D+7.0 | D+2.4 | D+4.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 873 | D+8.0 | D+0.6 | D+7.4 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 901 | D+6.0 | R+1.4 | D+7.3 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 907 | D+12.0 | D+2.8 | D+9.2 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-27 | 865 | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2020-10-27 | 901 | D+10.0 | D+4.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2020-10-25 | 886 | D+12.0 | D+4.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_US | House-G | 2020-10-25 | 886 | D+12.0 | D+3.0 | D+9.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2020-10-18 | 843 | D+10.0 | D+1.2 | D+8.8 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2020-10-18 | 847 | D+4.0 | R+3.4 | D+7.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_US | House-G | 2018-11-02 | 1,151 | D+13.0 | D+8.8 | D+4.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_TN | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 764 | R+4.0 | R+10.8 | D+6.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 622 | D+3.0 | D+5.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 781 | D+2.0 | R+0.1 | D+2.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-10-27 | 702 | D+4.0 | D+2.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 764 | R+10.0 | R+21.0 | D+11.0 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 622 | D+1.0 | D+4.2 | R+3.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 781 | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2018-10-27 | 702 | R+7.0 | R+14.2 | D+7.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-18 | 759 | D+5.0 | R+0.1 | D+5.1 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-18 | 759 | D+12.0 | R+0.4 | D+12.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-24 | 741 | R+1.0 | R+2.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-11-03 | 1,103 | R+2.0 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-10-27 | 1,103 | R+3.0 | D+0.5 | R+3.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-10-20 | 653 | R+2.0 | D+0.5 | R+2.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_House-G_US | House-G | 1998-10-23 | 600 | D+5.0 | R+0.9 | D+5.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.