Selzer & Co.
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 36
- Mean absolute error
- 3.07percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.55
- Represented cycles
- 141998–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 1998through Oct 31, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
36 eligible historical polls across 14 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
36 shown · 36 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | IA · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-31 | — | D+3.0 | R+13.2 | D+16.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2022-11-02 | 801 | R+12.0 | R+12.2 | D+0.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2022-11-02 | 801 | R+17.0 | R+18.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2020-10-28 | 814 | R+4.0 | R+6.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2020-10-28 | 814 | R+7.0 | R+8.2 | D+1.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2018-11-01 | 801 | D+2.0 | R+2.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2016-11-05 | 799 | D+3.0 | D+2.1 | D+0.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_House-G_US | House-G | 2016-11-05 | 799 | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2016-11-03 | 800 | R+23.0 | R+24.5 | D+1.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2016-11-03 | 800 | R+7.0 | R+9.5 | D+2.5 |
| 2016 | 2016_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2016-10-23 | 805 | R+10.0 | R+7.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2016-10-23 | 805 | R+1.5 | R+1.2 | R+0.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-30 | 708 | R+7.0 | R+8.3 | D+1.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2014-10-30 | 701 | R+24.0 | R+21.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2012-11-01 | 800 | D+5.0 | D+5.8 | R+0.8 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2010-10-28 | 805 | R+31.0 | R+31.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2010-10-28 | 805 | R+12.0 | R+9.6 | R+2.4 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-25 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+6.8 | D+3.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+21.0 | D+28.8 | R+7.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+26.0 | D+25.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2008-10-30 | 616 | D+16.0 | D+16.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2008-10-30 | 814 | D+17.0 | D+9.6 | D+7.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_IN | Pres-G | 2008-10-27 | 606 | D+1.0 | D+1.0 | R+0.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2008-10-27 | 606 | R+18.0 | R+17.8 | R+0.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IA-1 | House-G | 2006-11-02 | 515 | D+21.0 | D+11.8 | D+9.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2006-11-02 | 756 | D+9.0 | D+9.7 | R+0.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2006-11-01 | 532 | D+19.0 | D+15.7 | D+3.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2006-11-01 | 532 | D+13.0 | D+14.1 | R+1.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-7 | House-G | 2006-10-17 | 468 | R+3.0 | D+7.5 | R+10.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IN | Pres-G | 2004-10-28 | 1,002 | R+20.0 | R+20.7 | D+0.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2004-10-28 | 1,002 | R+6.0 | R+7.7 | D+1.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2004-10-27 | 806 | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | D+3.7 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2002-10-31 | 807 | D+9.0 | D+10.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2002-10-31 | 807 | D+12.0 | D+8.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2000-11-01 | 805 | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 1998-10-29 | 800 | R+4.0 | D+5.8 | R+9.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.