SEA Polling & Strategic Design
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 3.11percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.99
- Represented cycles
- 62002–2018
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 24, 2002through Oct 19, 2018
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2014 · 2018
10 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2018-10-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+0.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2018-10-19 | 600 | D+6.0 | R+0.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2014-10-31 | 1,800 | R+3.0 | R+1.1 | R+1.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2014-10-29 | 800 | R+2.0 | R+1.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 800 | D+7.0 | D+2.8 | D+4.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2006-10-24 | 800 | D+26.0 | D+22.2 | D+3.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2006-10-24 | 800 | R+6.0 | R+7.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2004-10-20 | 800 | 0 | R+1.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 800 | 0 | R+5.0 | D+5.0 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2002-10-24 | 800 | R+8.0 | R+12.8 | D+4.8 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.