Governor
Spanberger +10GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 51% · Winsome Earle-Sears 41%
- Field dates
- Oct 25–Oct 27, 2025
- Sample
- 1,041 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 18
- Mean absolute error
- 6.26percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+0.28
- Represented cycles
- 132001–2025
- Current archive
- 4canonical records
- History span
- Oct 26, 2001through Oct 27, 2025
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- Roanoke College
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2001 · 2005 · 2006 · 2008 · 2009 · 2012 · 2013 · 2014 · 2016 · 2017 · 2020 · 2021 · 2025
18 eligible historical polls across 13 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
4 shown · 4 total
Governor
Spanberger +7GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 46% · Winsome Earle-Sears 39%
- Field dates
- Aug 11–Aug 15, 2025
- Sample
- 602 LV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +17GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 43% · Winsome Earle-Sears 26%
- Field dates
- May 12–May 19, 2025
- Sample
- 609 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor
Spanberger +15GOV-VA
Abigail Spanberger 39% · Winsome Earle-Sears 24%
- Field dates
- Feb 17–Feb 20, 2025
- Sample
- 690 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Not reported in archive
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
18 shown · 18 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | VA · Governor | Gov-G | 2025-10-27 | — | D+10.0 | D+15.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2025 | VA · Attorney general | AG-G | 2025-10-27 | — | R+8.0 | D+6.7 | R+14.7 |
| 2021 | 2021_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2021-10-21 | 571 | D+1.0 | R+1.9 | D+2.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2020-10-26 | 802 | D+16.0 | D+12.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2020-10-26 | 802 | D+11.0 | D+10.2 | D+0.8 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-10-31 | 781 | 0 | D+8.9 | R+8.9 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-31 | 654 | D+8.0 | D+5.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2016-10-27 | 766 | D+19.0 | D+5.4 | D+13.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2014-10-23 | 598.5 | D+11.0 | D+0.8 | D+10.2 |
| 2013 | 2013_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2013-10-24 | 838 | D+15.0 | D+2.5 | D+12.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2012-10-25 | 638 | R+5.0 | D+5.9 | R+10.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2012-10-25 | 638 | R+5.0 | D+3.9 | R+8.9 |
| 2009 | 2009_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2009-10-24 | 569 | R+16.0 | R+17.4 | D+1.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2008-10-23 | 614 | D+35.0 | D+31.3 | D+3.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_VA | Pres-G | 2008-10-23 | 614 | D+9.0 | D+6.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_VA | Sen-G | 2006-10-26 | 453 | R+3.0 | D+0.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2005 | 2005_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2005-10-27 | 407 | D+8.0 | D+5.7 | D+2.3 |
| 2001 | 2001_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2001-10-26 | 423 | D+9.0 | D+5.1 | D+3.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.