Richard Day Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 11
- Mean absolute error
- 5.52percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.39
- Represented cycles
- 51998–2006
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 27, 1998through Oct 22, 2006
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006
11 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
11 shown · 11 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IL-6 | House-G | 2006-10-22 | 500 | R+4.0 | R+2.7 | R+1.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IL-8 | House-G | 2006-10-21 | 500 | D+3.0 | D+7.3 | R+4.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2006-10-19 | 603 | D+16.0 | D+10.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2004-10-18 | 828 | D+50.0 | D+43.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2004-10-18 | 828 | D+10.0 | D+10.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2002-10-21 | 800 | D+21.0 | D+22.3 | R+1.3 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2002-10-21 | 800 | D+9.0 | D+7.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2000-10-23 | 801 | D+5.0 | D+12.0 | R+7.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_House-G_IL-10 | House-G | 2000-10-23 | 305 | R+10.0 | R+2.4 | R+7.6 |
| 1998 | 1998_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 1998-10-27 | 712 | R+10.0 | R+2.9 | R+7.1 |
| 1998 | 1998_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 1998-10-27 | 712 | R+21.0 | R+3.6 | R+17.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.