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Pollster file

Research Co.

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
63
Mean absolute error
4.06percentage points
Historical bias
D+0.67
Represented cycles
62018–2025
Current archive
7canonical records
History span
Nov 2, 2018through Nov 3, 2025
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2018 · 2020 · 2021 · 2022 · 2024 · 2025

63 eligible historical polls across 6 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

7 shown · 7 total

Disapprove +19

Approve 38% · Disapprove 57%

Field dates
Jun 4–Jun 6, 2026
Sample
1,001 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +5

Dem 38% · Rep 33%

Field dates
Jun 4–Jun 6, 2026
Sample
1,001 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +6

Dem 42% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Jan 13–Jan 15, 2026
Sample
1,002 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +11

Approve 42% · Disapprove 53%

Field dates
Jan 13–Jan 15, 2026
Sample
1,002 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-VA

Spanberger +8

Abigail Spanberger 51% · Winsome Earle-Sears 43%

Field dates
Nov 2–Nov 3, 2025
Sample
450 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Governor

GOV-NJ

Sherrill +2

Mikie Sherrill 48% · Jack Ciattarelli 46%

Field dates
Nov 2–Nov 3, 2025
Sample
450 LV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Approve +4

Approve 50% · Disapprove 46%

Field dates
Jan 22–Jan 24, 2025
Sample
1,001 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 63 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2025VA · GovernorGov-G2025-11-03—D+8.0D+15.4R+7.4
2025NJ · GovernorGov-G2025-11-03—D+3.0D+14.4R+11.4
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+2.0R+1.5D+3.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+3.0R+0.9D+3.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+1.0R+1.7D+2.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-11-03—D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
2022WI · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450R+6.0R+1.0R+5.0
2022PA · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+1.0D+4.9R+3.9
2022OH · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450R+8.0R+6.1R+1.9
2022NY · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+20.0D+14.0D+6.0
2022NV · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450R+1.0D+0.8R+1.8
2022IL · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+18.0D+15.3D+2.7
2022GA · SenateSen-G2022-11-054500D+1.0R+1.0
2022FL · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450R+10.0R+16.4D+6.4
2022CA · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+16.0D+22.1R+6.1
2022AZ · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+4.0D+4.9R+0.9
2022CA · SenateSen-G2022-11-05450D+16.0D+21.8R+5.8
2022WI · GovernorGov-G2022-11-054500D+3.4R+3.4
2022PA · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450D+12.0D+14.8R+2.8
2022OH · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450R+22.0R+25.0D+3.0
2022NY · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450D+10.0D+6.4D+3.6
2022NV · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450R+2.0R+1.5R+0.5
2022IL · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450D+20.0D+12.5D+7.5
2022GA · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450R+7.0R+7.5D+0.5
2022FL · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450R+14.0R+19.4D+5.4
2022CA · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450D+20.0D+18.4D+1.6
2022AZ · GovernorGov-G2022-11-05450R+2.0D+0.7R+2.7
2021VA · GovernorGov-G2021-11-01450R+1.0R+1.9D+0.9
2021NJ · GovernorGov-G2021-11-01450D+6.0D+3.2D+2.8
2020NJ · SenateSen-G2020-11-01450D+23.0D+16.3D+6.7
2020MN · SenateSen-G2020-11-01450D+11.0D+5.2D+5.8
2020MI · SenateSen-G2020-11-01450D+15.0D+1.7D+13.3
2020IL · SenateSen-G2020-11-01450D+22.0D+16.1D+5.9
2020WI · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+8.0D+0.6D+7.4
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-11-011,025D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
2020PA · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+6.0D+1.2D+4.8
2020OH · PresidentPres-G2020-11-014500R+8.0D+8.0
2020NY · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+28.0D+23.1D+4.9
2020NJ · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+18.0D+15.9D+2.1
2020MN · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+9.0D+7.1D+1.9
2020MI · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+7.0D+2.8D+4.2
2020IL · PresidentPres-G2020-11-01450D+17.0D+17.0D+0.0
2020national · PresidentPres-G2020-10-171,035D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
2018WI · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+11.0D+10.8D+0.2
2018PA · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+17.0D+13.1D+3.9
2018OH · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+14.0D+6.8D+7.2
2018NY · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+28.0D+34.0R+6.0
2018NM · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+14.0D+23.6R+9.6
2018MN · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+20.0D+24.1R+4.1
2018MI · SenateSen-G2018-11-02450D+16.0D+6.5D+9.5

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.