Research 2000
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 248
- Mean absolute error
- 5.16percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.43
- Represented cycles
- 92000–2010
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2000through Jan 16, 2010
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2005 · 2006 · 2007 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010
248 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 248 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_VT | Gov-G | 2006-10-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | R+15.2 | D+5.2 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_MI | Gov-G | 2006-10-24 | 600 | D+10.0 | D+14.1 | R+4.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2006-10-23 | 600 | R+14.0 | R+14.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_NV-2 | House-G | 2006-10-23 | 400 | R+8.0 | R+5.4 | R+2.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2006-10-23 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+4.2 | R+1.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-9 | House-G | 2006-10-19 | 400 | D+2.0 | D+4.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-8 | House-G | 2006-10-19 | 400 | D+7.0 | D+22.0 | R+15.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-7 | House-G | 2006-10-19 | 400 | D+5.0 | D+7.5 | R+2.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_FL-22 | House-G | 2006-10-18 | 600 | R+5.0 | D+3.8 | R+8.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2006-10-17 | 600 | D+5.0 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| 2005 | 2005_Gov-G_NJ | Gov-G | 2005-10-26 | 600 | D+9.0 | D+10.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_CT-2 | House-G | 2004-10-29 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+8.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+42.0 | D+43.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2004-10-28 | 600 | D+14.0 | D+10.3 | D+3.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | R+49.0 | R+32.5 | R+16.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_CT | Sen-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+39.0 | D+34.2 | D+4.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+3.0 | D+1.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_CT | Pres-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | D+10.0 | D+10.4 | R+0.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_CT-4 | House-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | R+8.0 | R+4.9 | R+3.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2004-10-27 | 600 | R+1.0 | D+2.1 | R+3.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+38.0 | R+42.3 | D+4.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2004-10-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+3.4 | D+0.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2004-10-26 | 600 | R+1.0 | R+0.7 | R+0.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2004-10-25 | 600 | R+1.0 | R+4.6 | D+3.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2004-10-25 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+12.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2004-10-25 | 600 | D+12.0 | D+12.7 | R+0.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2004-10-23 | 800 | R+16.0 | R+13.3 | R+2.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IN | Sen-G | 2004-10-23 | 600 | D+34.0 | D+24.4 | D+9.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_MO | Pres-G | 2004-10-23 | 800 | R+3.0 | R+7.2 | D+4.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IN | Pres-G | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+16.0 | R+20.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_MO | Gov-G | 2004-10-23 | 800 | R+2.0 | R+3.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_IN | Gov-G | 2004-10-23 | 600 | R+3.0 | R+7.7 | D+4.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IL | Sen-G | 2004-10-22 | 800 | D+42.0 | D+43.0 | R+0.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2004-10-22 | 800 | D+12.0 | D+10.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | D+22.0 | D+26.4 | R+4.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | 0 | R+1.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+4.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NV | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+2.6 | D+0.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NJ | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | D+7.0 | D+6.7 | D+0.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2004-10-20 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+5.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_CT-2 | House-G | 2004-10-19 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+8.4 | D+6.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | R+52.0 | R+32.5 | R+19.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+4.2 | D+1.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_NH | Pres-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+1.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_NH-2 | House-G | 2004-10-13 | 300 | R+16.0 | R+20.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_House-G_NH-1 | House-G | 2004-10-13 | 300 | R+16.0 | R+26.8 | D+10.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2004-10-13 | 600 | R+4.0 | D+2.1 | R+6.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2004-10-12 | 600 | D+5.0 | D+3.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2002-11-01 | 600 | D+9.0 | D+9.9 | R+0.9 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_NH | Sen-G | 2002-10-30 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+4.4 | D+5.4 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.