Research 2000
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 248
- Mean absolute error
- 5.16percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+1.43
- Represented cycles
- 92000–2010
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 17, 2000through Jan 16, 2010
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2005 · 2006 · 2007 · 2008 · 2009 · 2010
248 eligible historical polls across 9 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
50 shown · 248 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_IN-3 | House-G | 2008-10-17 | 600 | R+5.0 | R+15.3 | D+10.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MT | Pres-G | 2008-10-16 | 500 | R+4.0 | R+2.3 | R+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_MT-1 | House-G | 2008-10-16 | 500 | R+14.0 | R+31.7 | D+17.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_MT | Gov-G | 2008-10-16 | 500 | D+17.0 | D+33.0 | R+15.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+27.0 | R+51.4 | D+24.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_TX | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+12.0 | D+6.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_OR | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+3.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_NC | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+8.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_MN | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+0.0 | D+2.0 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_ME | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+13.0 | R+22.8 | D+9.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_KY | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+4.0 | R+5.9 | D+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_GA | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+2.0 | R+2.9 | D+0.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-G_AK | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+1.3 | D+0.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GS_WY | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+21.0 | R+46.9 | D+25.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Sen-GS_MS | Sen-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+1.0 | R+9.9 | D+8.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_WY | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+23.0 | R+32.4 | D+9.4 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 1,100 | D+10.0 | D+7.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_TX | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+12.0 | R+11.8 | R+0.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_OR | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+15.0 | D+16.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_ND | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 500 | 0 | R+8.6 | D+8.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_NC | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+0.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MS | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+10.0 | R+13.2 | D+3.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_MN | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+13.0 | D+10.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_ME | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+17.0 | D+17.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_KY | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+14.0 | R+16.2 | D+2.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_GA | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+6.0 | R+5.2 | R+0.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_AK | Pres-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | R+19.0 | R+21.6 | D+2.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_WY-1 | House-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+1.0 | R+9.8 | D+10.8 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_US | House-G | 2008-10-15 | 1,100 | D+13.0 | D+11.1 | D+1.9 |
| 2008 | 2008_House-G_AK-1 | House-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+6.0 | R+5.2 | D+11.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Gov-G_NC | Gov-G | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+5.0 | D+3.4 | D+1.6 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2008-10-14 | 600 | D+4.0 | D+2.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2007 | 2007_Gov-G_KY | Gov-G | 2007-10-23 | 600 | D+15.0 | D+17.4 | R+2.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_NH-2 | House-G | 2006-11-02 | 300 | R+1.0 | D+7.1 | R+8.1 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_NH-1 | House-G | 2006-11-02 | 300 | R+8.0 | D+2.6 | R+10.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_NH | Gov-G | 2006-11-02 | 600 | D+41.0 | D+48.3 | R+7.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-2 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 400 | D+3.0 | D+8.0 | R+5.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IA-3 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 400 | D+12.0 | D+5.4 | D+6.6 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_CT-2 | House-G | 2006-10-31 | 600 | D+1.0 | D+0.0 | D+1.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_WI | Gov-G | 2006-10-31 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+7.4 | R+1.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IA | Gov-G | 2006-10-31 | 600 | D+5.0 | D+9.7 | R+4.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_CT | Gov-G | 2006-10-31 | 600 | R+22.0 | R+27.8 | D+5.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_CT-5 | House-G | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+3.0 | D+12.9 | R+9.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_CT-4 | House-G | 2006-10-27 | 600 | D+4.0 | R+3.4 | D+7.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MO | Sen-G | 2006-10-25 | 800 | 0 | D+2.3 | R+2.3 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_IN-3 | House-G | 2006-10-25 | 400 | R+12.0 | R+8.6 | R+3.4 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_IL | Gov-G | 2006-10-25 | 800 | D+9.0 | D+10.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_NJ | Sen-G | 2006-10-24 | 600 | D+6.0 | D+16.0 | R+10.0 |
| 2006 | 2006_Sen-G_MI | Sen-G | 2006-10-24 | 600 | D+11.0 | D+15.7 | R+4.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_VT-1 | House-G | 2006-10-24 | 400 | D+10.0 | D+8.7 | D+1.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.