RABA Research
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 7
- Mean absolute error
- 8.07percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+2.97
- Represented cycles
- 52016–2024
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Nov 2, 2016through Oct 29, 2024
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024
7 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
7 shown · 7 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | national · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-29 | — | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2024 | AZ · President | Pres-G | 2024-10-27 | — | D+2.0 | R+5.5 | D+7.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_TN | Gov-G | 2022-10-21 | 549 | R+24.0 | R+32.0 | D+8.0 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2020-10-23 | 693 | D+6.0 | R+6.6 | D+12.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2020-10-23 | 693 | D+4.0 | R+8.2 | D+12.2 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-GS_PA-18 | House-G | 2018-03-07 | 707 | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | D+3.7 |
| 2016 | 2016_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2016-11-02 | 1,076 | R+2.5 | R+9.5 | D+7.0 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.