Øptimus Analytics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 14
- Mean absolute error
- 5.45percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.82
- Represented cycles
- 42014–2020
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 16, 2014through Nov 1, 2020
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2014 · 2017 · 2018 · 2020
14 eligible historical polls across 4 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
14 shown · 14 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-G_SC | Sen-G | 2020-11-01 | 802 | R+9.8 | R+10.3 | D+0.5 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_SC | Pres-G | 2020-11-01 | 817 | R+12.4 | R+11.7 | R+0.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_House-G_VA-7 | House-G | 2020-11-01 | 505 | D+10.2 | D+1.8 | D+8.4 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_OH-7 | House-G | 2018-11-01 | 800 | R+18.3 | R+17.5 | R+0.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-G_AZ-1 | House-G | 2018-11-01 | 756 | D+2.4 | D+7.7 | R+5.3 |
| 2017 | 2017_Gov-G_VA | Gov-G | 2017-11-02 | 1,600 | R+3.0 | D+8.9 | R+11.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2014-11-01 | 2,559 | R+1.5 | R+1.1 | R+0.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-30 | 2,421 | R+2.9 | R+8.3 | D+5.5 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_MA-6 | House-G | 2014-10-24 | 1,807 | R+1.8 | D+13.8 | R+15.6 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-23 | 2,755 | R+3.1 | R+8.3 | D+5.3 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2014-10-23 | 4,893 | R+2.5 | R+1.1 | R+1.4 |
| 2014 | 2014_House-G_MA-6 | House-G | 2014-10-18 | 2,994 | D+1.3 | D+13.8 | R+12.5 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2014-10-16 | 2,455 | R+0.6 | R+8.3 | D+7.8 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_FL | Gov-G | 2014-10-16 | 4,701 | R+0.9 | R+1.1 | D+0.2 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.