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Pollster file

Pew Research Center

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
25
Mean absolute error
4.41percentage points
Historical bias
D+1.41
Represented cycles
101998–2016
Current archive
13canonical records
History span
Oct 16, 1998through Oct 23, 2016
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
No additional reviewed aliases
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010 · 2012 · 2014 · 2016

25 eligible historical polls across 10 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-10-24. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 13 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 44% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Sep 28–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
3,917 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +8

Dem 44% · Rep 36%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
3,917 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +38

Approve 30% · Disapprove 68%

Field dates
Sep 30–Oct 4, 2026
Sample
5,062 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +18

Approve 40% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates
Sep 22–Sep 28, 2025
Sample
3,445 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +17

Approve 41% · Disapprove 58%

Field dates
Jun 2–Jun 8, 2025
Sample
5,044 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +19

Approve 40% · Disapprove 59%

Field dates
Apr 7–Apr 13, 2025
Sample
3,589 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Disapprove +4

Approve 47% · Disapprove 51%

Field dates
Jan 27–Feb 2, 2025
Sample
5,086 A
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

25 shown · 25 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2016national · PresidentPres-G2016-10-232,120D+6.5D+2.1D+4.4
2014national · HouseHouse-G2014-10-181,126D+1.0R+5.9D+6.9
2012national · PresidentPres-G2012-11-022,709D+3.0D+3.9R+0.8
2012national · PresidentPres-G2012-10-261,4950D+3.9R+3.9
2010national · HouseHouse-G2010-10-29600R+6.0R+6.8D+0.8
2010national · HouseHouse-G2010-10-16600R+10.0R+6.8R+3.2
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-312,587D+6.0D+7.3R+1.3
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-251,198D+15.0D+7.3D+7.7
2008national · PresidentPres-G2008-10-182,382D+14.0D+7.3D+6.7
2006national · HouseHouse-G2006-11-031,795D+4.0D+8.2R+4.2
2006national · HouseHouse-G2006-10-201,118D+11.0D+8.2D+2.8
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-291,925R+3.0R+2.5R+0.5
2004national · PresidentPres-G2004-10-176000R+2.5D+2.5
2002national · HouseHouse-G2002-11-02600D+4.0R+5.0D+9.0
2002national · HouseHouse-G2002-11-011,035D+2.0R+5.0D+7.0
2002national · HouseHouse-G2002-10-191,677D+5.0R+5.0D+10.0
2000national · PresidentPres-G2000-11-041,301R+2.0D+0.5R+2.5
2000national · HouseHouse-G2000-11-041,829D+6.0R+0.4D+6.4
2000national · PresidentPres-G2000-11-031,307R+3.0D+0.5R+3.5
2000national · HouseHouse-G2000-11-031,805D+4.0R+0.4D+4.4
2000national · PresidentPres-G2000-10-271,062R+4.0D+0.5R+4.5
2000national · PresidentPres-G2000-10-206630D+0.5R+0.5
1998national · HouseHouse-G1998-10-30743D+2.0R+0.9D+2.9
1998national · HouseHouse-G1998-10-303,184D+9.0R+0.9D+9.9
1998national · HouseHouse-G1998-10-16743R+5.0R+0.9R+4.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.