Don't know 14% · Larry Hogan 37% · Wes Moore 45%
- Field dates
- Oct 7–Oct 10, 2025
- Sample
- 928 RV
- Sponsor / client
- Baltimore Banner | Robert W. Deutsch Foundation
- Partisan sponsorship
- No partisan sponsorship flag
Pollster file
OpinionWorks
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 7
- Mean absolute error
- 6.48percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+1.05
- Represented cycles
- 32010–2022
- Current archive
- 1canonical records
- History span
- Oct 18, 2010through Oct 22, 2022
Identity
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2010 · 2012 · 2022
7 eligible historical polls is a limited denominator; both MAE and bias may move materially as another cycle is added.
Canonical 2025–2026 archive
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
1 shown · 1 total
Certified-result history
Eligible historical observations
7 shown · 7 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_MD | Gov-G | 2022-10-22 | 989 | D+31.0 | D+32.5 | R+1.5 |
| 2012 | 2012_House-G_MD-6 | House-G | 2012-10-23 | 610 | D+1.0 | D+20.9 | R+19.9 |
| 2012 | 2012_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2012-10-22 | 801 | D+26.0 | D+29.7 | R+3.7 |
| 2012 | 2012_Pres-G_MD | Pres-G | 2012-10-22 | 801 | D+19.0 | D+26.2 | R+7.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_Sen-G_MD | Sen-G | 2010-10-18 | 798 | D+27.0 | D+26.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_MD-1 | House-G | 2010-10-18 | 520 | 0 | R+12.1 | D+12.1 |
| 2010 | 2010_Gov-G_MD | Gov-G | 2010-10-18 | 800 | D+14.0 | D+14.5 | R+0.5 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.