Opinion Research Associates
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 14
- Mean absolute error
- 9.19percentage points
- Historical bias
- D+4.11
- Represented cycles
- 52000–2014
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 2000through Oct 31, 2014
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2014
14 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
14 shown · 14 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2014-10-31 | 400 | D+2.0 | R+17.1 | D+19.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2014-10-31 | 400 | D+4.0 | R+13.9 | D+17.9 |
| 2014 | 2014_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2014-10-26 | 401 | D+1.0 | R+17.1 | D+18.1 |
| 2014 | 2014_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2014-10-26 | 401 | D+2.0 | R+13.9 | D+15.9 |
| 2006 | 2006_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2006-10-24 | 500 | D+18.0 | D+14.9 | D+3.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2004-10-19 | 500 | D+36.0 | D+11.8 | D+24.2 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2004-10-19 | 500 | 0 | R+9.8 | D+9.8 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2002-10-25 | 500 | D+8.0 | D+7.8 | D+0.2 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2002-10-25 | 500 | R+6.0 | R+6.1 | D+0.1 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_AR-4 | House-G | 2002-10-23 | 400 | D+15.0 | D+21.1 | R+6.1 |
| 2002 | 2002_Sen-G_AR | Sen-G | 2002-10-18 | 501 | D+5.0 | D+7.8 | R+2.8 |
| 2002 | 2002_Gov-G_AR | Gov-G | 2002-10-18 | 501 | R+2.0 | R+6.1 | D+4.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_AR | Pres-G | 2000-10-29 | 700 | 0 | R+5.4 | D+5.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_House-G_AR-4 | House-G | 2000-10-29 | 400 | 0 | D+1.9 | R+1.9 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.