Opinion Dynamics
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 28
- Mean absolute error
- 3.88percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.64
- Represented cycles
- 71998–2010
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Oct 29, 1998through Oct 27, 2010
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 1998 · 2000 · 2002 · 2004 · 2006 · 2008 · 2010
28 eligible historical polls across 7 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
28 shown · 28 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-27 | 600 | R+13.0 | R+6.8 | R+6.2 |
| 2010 | 2010_House-G_US | House-G | 2010-10-12 | 600 | R+9.0 | R+6.8 | R+2.2 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-11-02 | 917 | D+7.0 | D+7.3 | R+0.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-29 | 924 | D+3.0 | D+7.3 | R+4.3 |
| 2008 | 2008_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2008-10-21 | 936 | D+9.0 | D+7.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-11-05 | 900 | D+13.0 | D+8.2 | D+4.8 |
| 2006 | 2006_House-G_US | House-G | 2006-10-25 | 900 | D+11.0 | D+8.2 | D+2.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_WI | Sen-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | D+14.0 | D+11.2 | D+2.8 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | R+30.0 | R+27.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_IA | Sen-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | R+47.0 | R+42.3 | R+4.7 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_FL | Sen-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | D+6.0 | R+1.1 | D+7.1 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_WI | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | R+3.0 | D+0.4 | R+3.4 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 1,200 | D+2.0 | R+2.5 | D+4.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | R+3.0 | R+2.1 | R+0.9 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_IA | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | R+4.0 | R+0.7 | R+3.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_FL | Pres-G | 2004-10-31 | 700 | D+5.0 | R+5.0 | D+10.0 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-29 | 1,200 | R+2.0 | R+2.5 | D+0.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Sen-G_OH | Sen-G | 2004-10-18 | 800 | R+30.0 | R+27.7 | R+2.3 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2004-10-18 | 1,200 | R+7.0 | R+2.5 | R+4.5 |
| 2004 | 2004_Pres-G_OH | Pres-G | 2004-10-18 | 800 | R+3.5 | R+2.1 | R+1.4 |
| 2002 | 2002_House-G_US | House-G | 2002-10-23 | 900 | R+1.0 | R+5.0 | D+4.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-11-02 | 1,000 | 0 | D+0.5 | R+0.5 |
| 2000 | 2000_House-G_US | House-G | 2000-11-02 | 1,000 | D+3.0 | R+0.4 | D+3.4 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_PA | Pres-G | 2000-10-26 | 600 | D+3.0 | D+4.2 | R+1.2 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_MI | Pres-G | 2000-10-26 | 600 | D+3.0 | D+5.1 | R+2.1 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_IL | Pres-G | 2000-10-26 | 600 | R+3.0 | D+12.0 | R+15.0 |
| 2000 | 2000_Pres-G_US | Pres-G | 2000-10-19 | 900 | R+3.0 | D+0.5 | R+3.5 |
| 1998 | 1998_House-G_US | House-G | 1998-10-29 | 673 | R+10.0 | R+0.9 | R+9.1 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.