OH Predictive Insights
Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.
- Historical polls
- 10
- Mean absolute error
- 3.94percentage points
- Historical bias
- R+0.69
- Represented cycles
- 32018–2022
- Current archive
- 0canonical records
- History span
- Apr 11, 2018through Oct 26, 2022
Known names and relationships
- Known aliases
- No additional reviewed aliases
- Organization type
- Single canonical organization
- Cycles represented
- 2018 · 2020 · 2022
10 eligible historical polls across 3 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.
Current-cycle records
Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.
0 shown · 0 total
No record in the currently authorized canonical archive is attached to this identity.
This is not evidence that the pollster released no 2026 polling; the source-audit gaps remain documented.
Eligible historical observations
10 shown · 10 total
| Cycle | Race | Type | Field end | Sample | Poll | Result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_NV | Sen-G | 2022-10-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+0.8 | D+1.2 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_NV | Gov-G | 2022-10-26 | 600 | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | D+5.5 |
| 2022 | 2022_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | R+2.9 |
| 2022 | 2022_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2022-10-25 | 600 | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | R+2.7 |
| 2020 | 2020_Sen-GS_AZ | Sen-G | 2020-10-24 | 716 | D+5.0 | D+2.4 | D+2.6 |
| 2020 | 2020_Pres-G_AZ | Pres-G | 2020-10-24 | 716 | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | D+2.7 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-11-03 | 631 | R+1.0 | D+2.3 | R+3.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Sen-G_AZ | Sen-G | 2018-10-23 | 600 | R+7.0 | D+2.3 | R+9.3 |
| 2018 | 2018_Gov-G_AZ | Gov-G | 2018-10-23 | 600 | R+18.0 | R+14.2 | R+3.8 |
| 2018 | 2018_House-GS_AZ-8 | House-G | 2018-04-11 | 500 | R+10.0 | R+4.7 | R+5.3 |
Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5
Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.
A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.
Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.