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Pollster file

Morning Consult

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
89
Mean absolute error
4.18percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.28
Represented cycles
52016–2024
Current archive
223canonical records
History span
Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

89 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 223 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +0.4

Dem 43.54% · Rep 43.98%

Field dates
Apr 7–Apr 13, 2025
Sample
26,749 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +0.3

Dem 43.68% · Rep 43.99%

Field dates
Mar 31–Apr 6, 2025
Sample
25,977 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +0.8

Dem 43.6% · Rep 44.44%

Field dates
Mar 24–Mar 30, 2025
Sample
27,397 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.5

Dem 43.09% · Rep 44.61%

Field dates
Mar 17–Mar 23, 2025
Sample
27,364 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.8

Dem 43.2% · Rep 44.95%

Field dates
Mar 10–Mar 16, 2025
Sample
26,877 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2.1

Dem 42.92% · Rep 44.98%

Field dates
Mar 3–Mar 9, 2025
Sample
27,685 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.6

Dem 42.96% · Rep 44.61%

Field dates
Feb 24–Mar 2, 2025
Sample
28,087 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +3

Dem 42.1% · Rep 45.1%

Field dates
Feb 17–Feb 23, 2025
Sample
27,621 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2.9

Dem 42.33% · Rep 45.23%

Field dates
Feb 10–Feb 16, 2025
Sample
27,203 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2.6

Dem 42.65% · Rep 45.22%

Field dates
Feb 3–Feb 9, 2025
Sample
26,690 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +0.9

Dem 42.85% · Rep 43.76%

Field dates
Jan 27–Feb 2, 2025
Sample
29,303 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2.9

Dem 41.86% · Rep 44.78%

Field dates
Jan 20–Jan 26, 2025
Sample
33,299 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

50 shown · 89 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-11-01—R+2.0R+3.2D+1.2
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-31—D+2.0R+1.5D+3.5
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-30—R+2.0R+2.2D+0.2
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-27—D+3.0R+1.5D+4.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—R+1.0R+0.9R+0.1
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—0R+1.7D+1.7
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-22—D+1.0R+1.4D+2.4
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-21—0R+5.5D+5.5
2024national · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+4.0R+1.5D+5.5
2024WI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+0.9D+0.9
2024PA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+1.7D+1.7
2024NV · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+1.0R+3.1D+4.1
2024NC · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—R+3.0R+3.2D+0.2
2024MI · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—D+2.0R+1.4D+3.4
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+2.2D+2.2
2024AZ · PresidentPres-G2024-10-20—0R+5.5D+5.5
2024GA · PresidentPres-G2024-10-15—R+1.0R+2.2D+1.2
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-11-052,005D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-302,005D+5.0R+2.7D+7.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-296,9740R+2.7D+2.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-267,947D+1.0R+2.7D+3.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-237,947D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20222022_House-G_USHouse-G2022-10-207,947D+2.0R+2.7D+4.7
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-3014,663D+8.0D+4.5D+3.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-3014,663D+7.0D+3.0D+4.0
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-273,267R+4.2R+9.6D+5.4
20202020_Sen-G_SCSen-G2020-10-27904R+2.2R+10.3D+8.1
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-271,982D+4.9R+1.8D+6.7
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-271,736D+5.7D+1.7D+4.0
20202020_Sen-G_KYSen-G2020-10-27911R+11.3R+19.5D+8.2
20202020_Sen-G_GASen-G2020-10-271,743D+1.0R+1.8D+2.8
20202020_Sen-G_COSen-G2020-10-27727D+7.9D+9.3R+1.4
20202020_Sen-G_ALSen-G2020-10-27850R+12.1R+20.4D+8.3
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-271,059D+3.5D+2.4D+1.1
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-271,002D+13.3D+0.6D+12.7
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2716,374D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-273,2670R+5.6D+5.6
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-27904R+6.6R+11.7D+5.1
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-272,686D+8.7D+1.2D+7.5
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-272,179R+2.6R+8.0D+5.4
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-271,982D+0.7R+1.4D+2.0
20202020_Pres-G_MOPres-G2020-10-271,109R+9.4R+15.4D+6.0
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-27883D+9.3D+7.1D+2.2
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-271,736D+7.3D+2.8D+4.5
20202020_Pres-G_INPres-G2020-10-271,147R+11.4R+16.1D+4.7
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-271,743D+2.4D+0.2D+2.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-274,451D+6.1R+3.4D+9.5
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-27727D+12.9D+13.5R+0.6
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-271,059D+2.3D+0.3D+2.0
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-2716,374D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.