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Pollster file

Morning Consult

Historical accuracy is measured against certified results. Current-cycle records come from the canonical, deduplicated archive and do not by themselves change the sealed forecast.

Historical polls
89
Mean absolute error
4.18percentage points
Historical bias
D+3.28
Represented cycles
52016–2024
Current archive
223canonical records
History span
Oct 20, 2016through Nov 1, 2024
Identity

Known names and relationships

Known aliases
Bloomberg/Morning Consult
Organization type
Single canonical organization
Cycles represented
2016 · 2018 · 2020 · 2022 · 2024

89 eligible historical polls across 5 represented cycles passed the published history identity checks. Historical bias is descriptive and is kept separate from sponsor or client affiliation.

Canonical 2025–2026 archive

Current-cycle records

Archive source date 2026-09-09 · bundled copy. Archive records may be newer than the sealed forecast; inclusion here does not mean the forecast uses them.

12 shown · 223 total

Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1.9

Dem 44.36% · Rep 42.51%

Field dates
Jun 30–Jul 6, 2025
Sample
27,913 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +0.2

Dem 43.58% · Rep 43.34%

Field dates
Jun 23–Jun 29, 2025
Sample
27,694 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +0.3

Dem 43.99% · Rep 43.73%

Field dates
Jun 16–Jun 22, 2025
Sample
28,021 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.3

Dem 43.68% · Rep 44.94%

Field dates
Jun 9–Jun 15, 2025
Sample
28,058 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +2.3

Dem 42.98% · Rep 45.28%

Field dates
Jun 2–Jun 8, 2025
Sample
28,551 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +0.6

Dem 43.67% · Rep 44.28%

Field dates
May 26–Jun 1, 2025
Sample
29,002 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.6

Dem 43.21% · Rep 44.82%

Field dates
May 19–May 25, 2025
Sample
28,855 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.2

Dem 43.26% · Rep 44.45%

Field dates
May 12–May 18, 2025
Sample
28,103 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Rep +1.2

Dem 43.35% · Rep 44.53%

Field dates
May 5–May 11, 2025
Sample
27,882 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +0.9

Dem 44.38% · Rep 43.51%

Field dates
Apr 28–May 4, 2025
Sample
25,876 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +1

Dem 44.09% · Rep 43.14%

Field dates
Apr 21–Apr 27, 2025
Sample
25,544 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
Generic ballot

Generic ballot

Dem +0.7

Dem 44.04% · Rep 43.36%

Field dates
Apr 14–Apr 20, 2025
Sample
26,905 RV
Sponsor / client
Not reported in archive
Partisan sponsorship
No partisan sponsorship flag
See this pollster in the Full Poll Archive →
Certified-result history

Eligible historical observations

39 shown · 89 total

CycleRaceTypeField endSamplePollResultError
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2415,509D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-2415,509D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-2112,000D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-2112,000D+6.0D+3.0D+3.0
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-1812,000D+10.0D+4.5D+5.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-1812,000D+8.0D+3.0D+5.0
20202020_Sen-G_TXSen-G2020-10-163,347R+5.0R+9.6D+4.6
20202020_Sen-G_SCSen-G2020-10-16926D+2.0R+10.3D+12.3
20202020_Sen-G_NCSen-G2020-10-161,904D+6.0R+1.8D+7.8
20202020_Sen-G_MISen-G2020-10-161,717D+6.0D+1.7D+4.3
20202020_Sen-G_GASen-G2020-10-161,672R+2.0R+1.8R+0.2
20202020_Sen-G_COSen-G2020-10-16788D+8.0D+9.3R+1.3
20202020_Sen-GS_AZSen-G2020-10-161,066D+4.0D+2.4D+1.6
20202020_Pres-G_WIPres-G2020-10-161,038D+12.0D+0.6D+11.4
20202020_Pres-G_TXPres-G2020-10-163,347D+1.0R+5.6D+6.6
20202020_Pres-G_SCPres-G2020-10-16926R+6.0R+11.7D+5.7
20202020_Pres-G_PAPres-G2020-10-162,563D+9.0D+1.2D+7.8
20202020_Pres-G_OHPres-G2020-10-162,271R+2.0R+8.0D+6.0
20202020_Pres-G_NCPres-G2020-10-161,904D+3.0R+1.4D+4.3
20202020_Pres-G_MNPres-G2020-10-16864D+9.0D+7.1D+1.9
20202020_Pres-G_MIPres-G2020-10-161,717D+8.0D+2.8D+5.2
20202020_Pres-G_GAPres-G2020-10-161,6720D+0.2R+0.2
20202020_Pres-G_FLPres-G2020-10-164,685D+7.0R+3.4D+10.4
20202020_Pres-G_COPres-G2020-10-16788D+16.0D+13.5D+2.5
20202020_Pres-G_AZPres-G2020-10-161,066R+1.0D+0.3R+1.3
20202020_Pres-G_USPres-G2020-10-1512,000D+9.0D+4.5D+4.5
20202020_House-G_USHouse-G2020-10-1512,000D+7.0D+3.0D+4.0
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-11-031,963D+3.0D+8.8R+5.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-11-011,961D+3.0D+8.8R+5.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-282,543D+8.0D+8.8R+0.8
20182018_House-G_USHouse-G2018-10-191,968D+6.0D+8.8R+2.8
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-11-051,482D+3.0D+2.1D+0.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-301,772D+3.0D+2.1D+0.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-301,772D+1.0R+1.1D+2.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-291,037D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-281,794D+4.0D+2.1D+1.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-281,794D+5.0R+1.1D+6.1
20162016_Pres-G_USPres-G2016-10-201,395D+6.0D+2.1D+3.9
20162016_House-G_USHouse-G2016-10-201,395D+3.0R+1.1D+4.1

Method · historical final-three-week D/R general-election rows plus verified historical supplement; min n=5

Definition · bias_D is poll D-R margin minus actual D-R margin; positive overstates Democrats.

A missing sample, sponsor or source is labeled unavailable; it is never reconstructed.

Poll data via VoteHub, used under CC BY 4.0. Poll data from The New York Times, used under CC BY 4.0.